Modeling and assessment of PV solar plants for composite system reliability considering radiation variability and component availability

This paper presents a method to model the output power of large PV systems for composite system reliability assessment. Grid level PV systems are usually constructed from a large number of power electronic components and PV panels. Modeling of these systems in power system reliability is a complex task due to the dependency of the output power on the intermittent source (solar radiation) and the availability of a large number of system components. An analytical method to construct a capacity outage probability and frequency table (COPAFT) that captures both the intermittency of the input source and component failures is proposed to model PV systems. The intermittency of the input source and component availabilities are modeled separately and then convolved to construct a single COPAFT. The resulting model includes both probability and frequency distributions. The proposed method reduces the complexity of modeling and evaluating large PV systems for composite system reliability assessment. The method is demonstrated on IEEE Reliability Test System (IEEE RTS). Considering the PV farm location with a view to enhance system reliability, sensitivity study is conducted to measure the effect of the location of the PV farm on overall system reliability. The results confirm that connecting PV farms to the buses that are at a high risk enhances the overall system reliability.

[1]  Wenyuan Li,et al.  Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods , 1994 .

[2]  R. Moharil,et al.  Reliability analysis of solar photovoltaic system using hourly mean solar radiation data , 2010 .

[3]  Dheeraj Kumar Khatod,et al.  Analytical Approach for Well-Being Assessment of Small Autonomous Power Systems With Solar and Wind Energy Sources , 2010, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion.

[4]  Masood Parvania,et al.  Incorporating Large Photovoltaic Farms in Power Generation System Adequacy Assessment , 2014 .

[5]  Joydeep Mitra,et al.  Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of Composite Power Systems Under Emission Constraints , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[6]  U. De Pra,et al.  Analysis of the degree of reliability of a redundant modular inverter structure , 1998, INTELEC - Twentieth International Telecommunications Energy Conference (Cat. No.98CH36263).

[7]  Joydeep Mitra,et al.  Sensitivity analysis in composite system reliability using weighted shadow prices , 2011, 2011 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting.

[8]  N. Pradhan,et al.  Probabilistic reliability evaluation of off-grid small hybrid solar PV-wind power system for the rural electrification in Nepal , 2012, 2012 North American Power Symposium (NAPS).

[9]  Weidong Xiao,et al.  Topology Study of Photovoltaic Interface for Maximum Power Point Tracking , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics.

[10]  Chanan Singh,et al.  Pruning and simulation for determination of frequency and duration indices of composite power systems , 1999 .

[11]  C.K. Duffey,et al.  Update of harmonic standard IEEE-519-IEEE Recommended Practices and Requirements for Harmonic Control in Electric Power Systems , 1989, Conference Record of the IEEE Industry Applications Society Annual Meeting,.

[12]  Wenyuan Li,et al.  Comparative analysis of the reliability of grid-connected photovoltaic power systems , 2012, 2012 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting.

[13]  Mounira Berkani,et al.  Ageing and Failure Modes of IGBT Modules in High-Temperature Power Cycling , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics.

[14]  R. Ramakumar.  Engineering Reliability: Fundamentals and Applications , 1996 .

[15]  Singh Maninder.  IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS) of 1996 (Available in Hypersim) , 2016 .

[16]  J. Mitra,et al.  Sensitivity analysis of reliability performance of multi-level converters , 2012, 2012 North American Power Symposium (NAPS).

[17]  E. Wang,et al.  Short-term electric load forecasting at Southern California Edison , 2012, 2012 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting.

[18]  Chanan Singli,et al.  Generation System Reliability Evaluation Using a Cluster Based Load Model , 1989 .

[19]  Alfredo Garro,et al.  Reliability Analysis of Residential Photovoltaic Systems , 2011 .

[20]  B. Raison,et al.  Guidelines for evaluating grid connected PV system topologies , 2009, 2009 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Technology.

[21]  Freddy Chan,et al.  Reliability Estimation of Three Single-Phase Topologies in Grid-Connected PV Systems , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics.

[22]  Wenyuan Li,et al.  Reliability assessment of photovoltaic power systems: Review of current status and future perspectives , 2013 .

[23]  Roy Billinton,et al.  Digital Computer Algobithms for the Calculation of Generating Capacity Reliability Indices , 1982 .

[24]  Chanan Singh,et al.  Incorporating the DC load flow model in the decomposition-simulation method of multi-area reliability evaluation , 1996 .

[25]  R. Billinton,et al.  Digital Computer Algobithms for the Calculation of Generating Capacity Reliability Indices , 1982, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems.

[26]  H. Calleja,et al.  Reliability-Oriented Assessment of a DC/DC Converter for Photovoltaic Applications , 2007, 2007 IEEE Power Electronics Specialists Conference.

[27]  N. Henze,et al.  Reliability Consideration of Low-Power Grid-Tied Inverter for Photovoltaic Application , 2009 .

[28]  C. Singh.  Calculating the Time-Specific Frequency of System Failure , 1979, IEEE Transactions on Reliability.

[29]  Mark W. Davis,et al.  Comparison of Photovoltaic Module Performance Measurements , 2006 .

[30]  Joydeep Mitra,et al.  Modeling the output power of PV farms for power system adequacy assessment , 2015, 2015 North American Power Symposium (NAPS).

[31]  E. Fernandez,et al.  Reliability well-being assessment of PV-wind hybrid system using Monte Carlo simulation , 2011, 2011 International Conference on Emerging Trends in Electrical and Computer Technology.

[32]  Diego H. Milone,et al.  Simulation of photovoltaic centrals with dynamic shading , 2013, Applied Energy.

[33]  S.E. Forman.  Performance of Experimental Terrestrial Photovoltaic Modules , 1982, IEEE Transactions on Reliability.

[34]  A. Tomaselli,et al.  Recent advances on AC PV-modules for grid-connected Photovoltaic plants , 2011, 2011 International Conference on Clean Electrical Power (ICCEP).

[35]  L.H. Stember,et al.  A Methodology for Photovoltaic System Reliability & Economic Analysis , 1982, IEEE Transactions on Reliability.

[36]  A. M. Leite da Silva,et al.  A conditional probability approach to the calculation of frequency and duration indices in composite reliability evaluation , 1993 .