Improved data, methods and tools for the 2007 HIV and AIDS estimates and projections

Dramatic changes in global HIV and AIDS estimates were publicised at the end of 2007,1 with a notable downward adjustment in the estimated number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) from 39.5 million (range 34.1–47.1 million) published in 20062 to 33.2 million (range 30.6–36.1 million).1 Both the original and revised estimates are by any measure catastrophic; however, the new lower estimates come at a time when global disease burden estimates are under intense scrutiny.3 4 While the 2007 AIDS Epidemic Update report noted that the downward adjustments were the result of better data leading to changes in assumptions and thereby estimates, we recognise the need for the highest level of transparency and opportunity for scientific critique. Since 2004 we have provided detailed descriptions of the tools and assumptions used in generating HIV and AIDS estimates, as well as the data and analyses underpinning these assumptions.5–7 This current supplement assembles important new data relating to several assumptions used for the new HIV and AIDS estimates. By bringing together a new collection of methodological papers in this supplement, we aim to provide easy access to the scientific basis underlying the latest HIV and AIDS estimates for 2007.1 8 9 The process of synthesising new data, reviewing assumptions and providing guidance on methods is driven by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections.10 This group, which was established in 1999 and is made up of academics, researchers and public health practitioners, has led the development of several modelling and estimation packages (for example, the Workbook, EPP and the AIM module in Spectrum) that are used by countries and UNAIDS and the World Health Organization in preparing national estimates. The group meets yearly to review the major themes providing inputs to the estimation …

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[3]  Jim Todd,et al.  Estimating Incidence from Prevalence in Generalised HIV Epidemics: Methods and Validation , 2008, PLoS medicine.

[4]  L. Heaton,et al.  Estimating the number of HIV infections averted: an approach and its issues , 2008, Sexually Transmitted Infections.

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[6]  N. Walker,et al.  Discrepancies between UN models and DHS survey estimates of maternal orphan prevalence: insights from analyses of survey data from Zimbabwe , 2008, Sexually Transmitted Infections.

[7]  E. Gouws,et al.  Comparison of adult HIV prevalence from national population-based surveys and antenatal clinic surveillance in countries with generalised epidemics: implications for calibrating surveillance data , 2008, Sexually Transmitted Infections.

[8]  V. Mishra,et al.  Evaluation of bias in HIV seroprevalence estimates from national household surveys , 2008, Sexually Transmitted Infections.

[9]  L. Shafer,et al.  HIV-1 disease progression and mortality before the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy in rural Uganda , 2007, AIDS.

[10]  Ekkehard Kopp,et al.  Improved HIV-1 incidence estimates using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay , 2008, AIDS.

[11]  Sa Azin,et al.  An overview on the 2008 UNAIDS Report on the 2008 UNAIDS Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic. , 2010 .

[12]  The quality of sero-surveillance in low- and middle-income countries: status and trends through 2007 , 2008, Sexually Transmitted Infections.

[13]  A. Gillies,et al.  Book review: The AIDS Pandemic: the collision of epidemiology with political correctness , 2007 .

[14]  A. Puren,et al.  Can Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy Reduce the Spread of HIV?: A Study in a Township of South Africa , 2004, Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes.

[15]  Robert E Black,et al.  Interpreting health statistics for policymaking: the story behind the headlines , 2007, The Lancet.

[16]  Eddy R. Segura,et al.  Epidemiology of male same-sex behaviour and associated sexual health indicators in low- and middle-income countries: 2003–2007 estimates , 2008, Sexually Transmitted Infections.

[17]  A. Raftery,et al.  Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in national HIV prevalence estimates , 2008, Sexually Transmitted Infections.

[18]  N. Walker,et al.  A global analysis of trends in the quality of HIV sero-surveillance , 2004, Sexually Transmitted Infections.

[19]  Jim Todd,et al.  Time from HIV seroconversion to death: a collaborative analysis of eight studies in six low and middle-income countries before highly active antiretroviral therapy , 2007, AIDS.

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[21]  O. Varetska,et al.  The most severe HIV epidemic in Europe: Ukraine’s national HIV prevalence estimates for 2007 , 2008, Sexually Transmitted Infections.

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[23]  N. Walker,et al.  Estimates of HIV burden in emergencies , 2008, Sexually Transmitted Infections.

[24]  J Stover,et al.  The Spectrum projection package: improvements in estimating mortality, ART needs, PMTCT impact and uncertainty bounds , 2008, Sexually Transmitted Infections.

[25]  P. Sonnenberg,et al.  Estimating ‘net’ HIV-related mortality and the importance of background mortality rates , 2007, AIDS.

[26]  M. Marston,et al.  Non-response bias in estimates of HIV prevalence due to the mobility of absentees in national population-based surveys: a study of nine national surveys , 2008, Sexually Transmitted Infections.

[27]  B. Branson,et al.  Comparison of HIV type 1 incidence observed during longitudinal follow-up with incidence estimated by cross-sectional analysis using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay. , 2006, AIDS research and human retroviruses.

[28]  M. Zwahlen,et al.  Duration from seroconversion to eligibility for antiretroviral therapy and from ART eligibility to death in adult HIV-infected patients from low and middle-income countries: collaborative analysis of prospective studies , 2008, Sexually Transmitted Infections.

[29]  V. Mishra,et al.  Comparison of HIV prevalence estimates from antenatal care surveillance and population-based surveys in sub-Saharan Africa , 2008, Sexually Transmitted Infections.

[30]  N. McGrath,et al.  Estimating the need for antiretroviral treatment and an assessment of a simplified HIV/AIDS case definition in rural Malawi , 2007, AIDS.