Integrating Performance-Based Engineering and Urban Simulation to Model Post-Earthquake Housing Recovery

The efficacy of various types of intervention measures intended to facilitate post-earthquake housing recovery can be evaluated ahead of time by using simulation models to quantify their benefits and tradeoffs. Towards this end, this paper presents a conceptual framework comprised of three components for modeling post-earthquake housing recovery. The modeling framework starts with a probabilistic assessment of building-level damage using recovery-based limit states that characterize post-earthquake functionality, inhabitability, and repairability. These limit states are the basis for the second component, which includes two different utility-based models for representing post-earthquake household decision making. Stochastic models to probabilistically quantify building-level recovery trajectories comprise the third and final component of the framework. Collectively, these alternative models can integrate the effect of building states, available resources, household decisions, and endogenous factors such as lifeline restoration. The modeling framework can be scaled to model spatiotemporal scenarios of housing recovery to inform jurisdictional-level policies, plans, and interventions to increase residential community resilience.

[1]  Judith Mitrani-Reiser,et al.  AN OUNCE OF PREVENTION: PROBABILISTIC LOSS ESTIMATION FOR PERFORMANCE - BASED EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING , 2007 .

[2]  Stephanie E. Chang,et al.  Understanding post-earthquake decisions on multi-storey concrete buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand , 2017, Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering.

[3]  Stephen Wu,et al.  Virtual Inspector and its application to immediate pre-event and post-event earthquake loss and safety assessment of buildings , 2016, Natural Hazards.

[4]  David Marcello.  Housing Redevelopment Strategies in the Wake of Katrina and Anti-Kelo Constitutional Amendments: Mapping a Path Through the Landscape of Disaster , 2007 .

[5]  Mary C. Comerio,et al.  Housing Issues After Disasters , 1997 .

[6]  Jack P. Moehle,et al.  A framework methodology for performance-based earthquake engineering , 2004 .

[7]  S J Hogg,et al.  Reconstruction following seismic disaster in venzone, friuli. , 1980, Disasters.

[8]  Ivan Damnjanovic,et al.  MODELING DYNAMICS OF POST-DISASTER RECOVERY , 2012 .

[9]  R Bolin,et al.  Shelter, housing and recovery: a comparison of u.s. Disasters. , 1991, Disasters.

[10]  Gregory G. Deierlein,et al.  Simulation of Seismic Collapse in Nonductile Reinforced Concrete Frame Buildings with Masonry Infills , 2014 .

[11]  Stephanie E. Chang,et al.  Measuring post-disaster transportation system performance: the 1995 Kobe earthquake in comparative perspective , 2001 .

[12]  E. Miranda,et al.  Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering , 2004 .

[13]  Scott B. Miles,et al.  Simulating disaster recovery as discrete event processes using python , 2015, 2015 IEEE Global Humanitarian Technology Conference (GHTC).

[14]  T. Shibuya,et al.  Simulation of Post-Earthquake Restoration of Lifeline Systems , 1985 .

[15]  Claire B. Rubin,et al.  Disaster recovery after Hurricane Hugo in South Carolina , 1990 .

[16]  Eduardo Miranda,et al.  Significance of residual drifts in building earthquake loss estimation , 2012 .

[17]  Haibin Liu,et al.  Statistical Forecasting of Electric Power Restoration Times in Hurricanes and Ice Storms , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[18]  Keith Porter,et al.  Estimating earthquake-induced failure probability and downtime of critical facilities. , 2012, Journal of business continuity & emergency planning.

[19]  M. Lindell,et al.  Housing reconstruction after two major earthquakes: the 1994 Northridge earthquake in the United States and the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. , 2004, Disasters.

[20]  Stephanie E. Chang,et al.  Linking Infrastructure and Urban Economy: Simulation of Water-Disruption Impacts in Earthquakes , 2002 .

[21]  Michael K. Lindell,et al.  RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION AFTER DISASTER , 2017 .

[22]  Gayle S. Johnson,et al.  Fragility of Mechanical, Electrical, and Plumbing Equipment , 2010 .

[23]  Stephanie E. Chang,et al.  Urban disaster recovery: a measurement framework and its application to the 1995 Kobe earthquake. , 2010, Disasters.

[24]  Jack P. Moehle,et al.  Dynamic collapse analysis for a reinforced concrete frame sustaining shear and axial failures , 2008 .

[25]  Daniel Felsenstein,et al.  Bouncing back or bouncing forward? Simulating urban resilience , 2014 .

[26]  D. Gale.  The linear exchange model , 1976 .

[27]  Samer Madanat,et al.  Computation of Infrastructure Transition Probabilities using Stochastic Duration Models , 2002 .

[28]  Curt B. Haselton,et al.  Seismic Collapse Safety of Reinforced Concrete Buildings. I: Assessment of Ductile Moment Frames , 2011 .

[29]  Gordon Miller,et al.  Decision Making: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Interactions , 1990 .

[30]  Jerry Banks,et al.  Discrete Event Simulation , 2002, Encyclopedia of Information Systems.

[31]  Frank Kozin,et al.  System Study of Urban Response and Reconstruction due to Earthquake , 1990 .

[32]  Ali Nejat,et al.  LASSO Model of Postdisaster Housing Recovery: Case Study of Hurricane Sandy , 2016 .

[33]  Moonseo Park,et al.  Hybrid Simulation Framework for Immediate Facility Restoration Planning after a Catastrophic Disaster , 2016 .

[34]  Walter Gillis Peacock,et al.  Planning for Housing Recovery? Lessons Learned From Hurricane Andrew , 2009 .

[35]  Stephanie E. Chang,et al.  Modeling Community Recovery from Earthquakes , 2006 .

[36]  Vitelmo V. Bertero,et al.  Earthquake Engineering: From Engineering Seismology To Performance-Based Engineering , 2020 .

[37]  Ivan Damnjanovic,et al.  Agent‐Based Modeling of Behavioral Housing Recovery Following Disasters , 2012, Comput. Aided Civ. Infrastructure Eng..

[38]  W. Waugh,et al.  Emergency management : principles and practice for local government , 2007 .

[39]  Stephanie E. Chang,et al.  ResilUS: A Community Based Disaster Resilience Model , 2011 .

[40]  Alessandro Vicini,et al.  Quantitative assessment of post-disaster housing recovery: a case study of Punta Gorda, Florida, after Hurricane Charley. , 2013, Disasters.

[41]  Gregory G. Deierlein,et al.  Seismic Damage and Collapse Assessment of Composite Moment Frames , 2001 .

[42]  Rachel A. Davidson,et al.  Modeling Insurer‐Homeowner Interactions in Managing Natural Disaster Risk , 2014, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[43]  Gregory G. Deierlein,et al.  Seismic Collapse Safety of Reinforced Concrete Buildings. II: Comparative Assessment of Nonductile and Ductile Moment Frames , 2011 .

[44]  P. Berke,et al.  Recovery after disaster: achieving sustainable development, mitigation and equity. , 1993, Disasters.

[45]  Ruth Murray-Webster,et al.  Understanding and Managing Risk Attitude , 2005 .

[46]  Rui Pinho,et al.  Development of the OpenQuake engine, the Global Earthquake Model’s open-source software for seismic risk assessment , 2014, Natural Hazards.

[47]  Li Sun,et al.  POST-EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY OF A COMMUNITY AND ITS ELECTRICAL POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM , 2015 .

[48]  S McIntosh,et al.  When disaster hits home. , 1987, Missouri dental journal.

[49]  H. Burton,et al.  TOWARDS THE SEISMIC RESILIENCE OF RESIDENTIAL COMMUNITIES: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND CASE STUDY , 2016 .

[50]  Matej Fischinger.  Performance-Based Seismic Engineering: Vision for an Earthquake Resilient Society , 2014 .

[51]  B. Wisner,et al.  At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability and Disasters , 1996 .

[52]  Dan M. Frangopol,et al.  Optimizing Bridge Network Retrofit Planning Based on Cost-Benefit Evaluation and Multi-Attribute Utility Associated with Sustainability , 2015 .

[53]  Joost R. Santos,et al.  TIME-VARYING DISASTER RECOVERY MODEL FOR INTERDEPENDENT ECONOMIC SYSTEMS USING HYBRID INPUT–OUTPUT AND EVENT TREE ANALYSIS , 2014 .

[54]  Gregory G. Deierlein,et al.  Framework for Incorporating Probabilistic Building Performance in the Assessment of Community Seismic Resilience , 2016 .

[55]  H. Varian.  Intermediate Microeconomics: A Modern Approach , 1987 .

[56]  J. St Cyr,et al.  Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management At Risk : Natural Hazards , People ' s Vulnerability , and Disasters , 2011 .

[57]  Chandra R. Bhat,et al.  A Self Instructing Course in Mode Choice Modeling: Multinomial and Nested Logit Models , 2006 .

[58]  Margarita Torre,et al.  The Scarring Effect of “Women’s Work”: The Determinants of Women’s Attrition from Male-Dominated Occupations , 2014 .

[59]  James R. Elliott.  Natural Hazards and Residential Mobility: General Patterns and Racially Unequal Outcomes in the United States , 2015 .

[60]  R. Cooke.  Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science , 1991 .

[61]  Patricia A. Bolton,et al.  Race, religion, and ethnicity in disaster recovery , 1986 .