Modelling uncertainties in pillar stability analysis

Many countries are now facing problems related to their past mining activities. One of the greatest problems they have to deal with concerns the potential surface instability. In areas where a bord-and-pillar extraction method was used, deterministic methodologies are generally used to assess the risk of surface collapses. However those methodologies suffer from not being able to take into account all the uncertainties existing in any risk analysis. Through the practical example of the assessment of a single pillar stability in a very simple mining layout, this paper introduces a logical framework that can be used to incorporate the different kinds of uncertainties related to data, models as well as to specific expert's choices in the risk analysis process. Practical recommendations and efficient tools are also provided to help engineers and experts in their daily work.