A vulnerability model for power system dynamic security assessment

Abstract Traditional security assessment based on risk takes into account the failure probability and the failure consequence. This paper provides a modification on the risk calculation by replacing the failure probability with the current status to overcome the dependence on mass statistical data. The vulnerability model is proposed that incorporates the two key factors of the risk along with the deterioration trend factor to define the system security level, which efficiently indicates the current and potential danger. Grey system theory is used to predict the equipment deterioration trend and the grey correlation moment is defined to evaluate equipment state with multi-parameters. The classification and quantification of equipment state, failure consequence, risk, deterioration trend and vulnerability are discussed. A feed water pump case demonstrates the effectiveness of vulnerability in system dynamic security assessment.

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