A strategic review of electricity systems models

Electricity systems models are software tools used to manage electricity demand and the electricity systems, to trade electricity and for generation expansion planning purposes. Various portfolios and scenarios are modelled in order to compare the effects of decision making in policy and on business development plans in electricity systems so as to best advise governments and industry on the least cost economic and environmental approach to electricity supply, while maintaining a secure supply of sufficient quality electricity. The modelling techniques developed to study vertically integrated state monopolies are now applied in liberalised markets where the issues and constraints are more complex. This paper reviews the changing role of electricity systems modelling in a strategic manner, focussing on the modelling response to key developments, the move away from monopoly towards liberalised market regimes and the increasing complexity brought about by policy targets for renewable energy and emissions. The paper provides an overview of electricity systems modelling techniques, discusses a number of key proprietary electricity systems models used in the USA and Europe and provides an information resource to the electricity analyst not currently readily available in the literature on the choice of model to investigate different aspects of the electricity system.

[1]  Cristian Carraretto,et al.  A dynamic approach for the optimal electricity dispatch in the deregulated market , 2004 .

[2]  Averill M. Law,et al.  Simulation Modeling and Analysis , 1982 .

[3]  Ji-Pyng Chiou,et al.  Variable scaling hybrid differential evolution for large-scale economic dispatch problems , 2007 .

[4]  Richard E. Schuler.  Electricity and ancillary services markets in New York state: market power in theory and practice , 2001, Proceedings of the 34th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[5]  Erik R. Larsen,et al.  From planning to strategy in the electricity industry , 2001 .

[6]  Young-Chang Kim,et al.  Multicriteria generation-expansion planning with global environmental considerations , 1993 .

[7]  S. Hunt,et al.  Competition and Choice in Electricity , 1996 .

[8]  Peter Tabeling,et al.  Fundamental Modeling Concepts: Effective Communication of It Systems , 2006 .

[9]  Christer Sjöström,et al.  State-of-the-art report , 1997 .

[10]  S. Awerbuch.  The surprising role of risk in utility integrated resource planning , 1993 .

[11]  Chi-Keung Woo,et al.  Estimating the option value of a non-firm electricity tariff , 2007 .

[12]  Peter Kall,et al.  Stochastic Programming , 1995 .

[13]  Alison Silverstein,et al.  Improving Electricity Resource-Planning Processes by Considering the Strategic Benefits of Transmission , 2009 .

[14]  Hanif D. Sherali,et al.  Stackelberg-Nash-Cournot Equilibria: Characterizations and Computations , 1983, Oper. Res..

[15]  Joong-Rin Shin,et al.  Optimal long-term transmission planning by expert system approach , 1993, Proceedings of TENCON '93. IEEE Region 10 International Conference on Computers, Communications and Automation.

[16]  Jenny Lieu,et al.  Design of the incentive mechanism in electricity auction market based on the signaling game theory , 2010 .

[17]  Dimitris Askounis,et al.  Strategic appraisal of energy models for Mozambique , 2003 .

[18]  J. Kiefer,et al.  Stochastic Estimation of the Maximum of a Regression Function , 1952 .

[19]  S. Dhar,et al.  Power System Long-Range Decision Analysis Under Fuzzy Environment , 1979, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems.

[20]  Tareq A. Al-Muhawesh,et al.  The prerequisite for competition in the restructured wholesale Saudi electricity market , 2008 .

[21]  Benjamin F. Hobbs,et al.  Optimization methods for electric utility resource planning , 1995 .

[22]  S. Stoft.  Power System Economics: Designing Markets for Electricity , 2002 .

[23]  N. Nabona.  Multicommodity network flow model for long-term hydro-generation optimization , 1993 .

[24]  Brian Vad Mathiesen,et al.  A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems , 2010 .

[25]  Pu Li,et al.  Long-term electricity contract optimization with demand uncertainties , 2006 .

[26]  Cristian Carraretto,et al.  Interaction among competitive producers in the electricity market: An iterative market model for the strategic management of thermal power plants , 2006 .

[27]  Leonard S. Hyman,et al.  Restructuring electricity policy and financial models , 2010 .

[28]  Wei Chen,et al.  Evolutionary computation enabled game theory based modelling of electricity market behaviours and applications , 2007, 2007 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation.

[29]  H. Robbins.  A Stochastic Approximation Method , 1951 .

[30]  R. Baldick,et al.  Computing the Electricity Market Equilibrium: Uses of market equilibrium models , 2006, 2006 IEEE PES Power Systems Conference and Exposition.

[31]  Aqeel Ahmed Bazmi,et al.  Sustainable energy systems: Role of optimization modeling techniques in power generation and supply—A review , 2011 .

[32]  R. Bellman.  Dynamic programming. , 1957, Science.

[33]  Stuart Dreyfus,et al.  Richard Bellman on the Birth of Dynamic Programming , 2002, Oper. Res..

[34]  T.K. Saha,et al.  Evaluation of New Generation Entry in A Deregulated Electricity Market , 2007, 2007 IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting.

[35]  Lennart Söder,et al.  Design and operation of power systems with large amounts of wind power , 2009 .

[36]  P.A.J. Fonseka,et al.  A Probabilistic Simulation Model to Identify New Generation Investments , 2007, 2007 IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting.

[37]  Jeannie Herbert.  Invited Keynote Paper , 2005 .

[38]  Jong-Bae Park,et al.  A hybrid genetic algorithm/dynamic programming approach to optimal long-term generation expansion planning , 1998 .

[39]  Lixiang Li,et al.  CHAOTIC PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION FOR ECONOMIC DISPATCH CONSIDERING THE GENERATOR CONSTRAINTS , 2007 .

[40]  T. Jayabarathi,et al.  Evolutionary programming techniques for different kinds of economic dispatch problems , 2005 .

[41]  Goran Strbac,et al.  QUANTIFYING THE SYSTEM COSTS OF ADDITIONAL RENEWABLES IN 2020 , 2002 .

[42]  Kenji Iba.  Reactive power optimization by genetic algorithm , 1993 .

[43]  A. G. Kagiannas,et al.  Power generation planning: a survey from monopoly to competition , 2004 .

[44]  A. D. Kulkarni,et al.  A neuro-expert system for planning and load forecasting of distribution systems , 1999 .

[45]  Hong-Chan Chang,et al.  Large-scale economic dispatch by genetic algorithm , 1995 .

[46]  Janet M. Carey,et al.  Price caps and investment: long-run effects in the electric generation industry , 2001 .

[47]  Eamon McKeogh,et al.  Techno-economic review of existing and new pumped hydro energy storage plant , 2010 .

[48]  John K. Kaldellis,et al.  Optimum energy storage techniques for the improvement of renewable energy sources-based electricity generation economic efficiency , 2007 .

[49]  W.T. Jewell,et al.  Analysis of the Cost per Kilowatt Hour to Store Electricity , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion.

[50]  G. Migliavacca,et al.  LREMS: a long term electricity market simulator based on game theory , 2006, 2006 IEEE PES Power Systems Conference and Exposition.

[51]  Georges Garabeth Salgi,et al.  The role of compressed air energy storage (CAES) in future sustainable energy systems , 2009 .

[52]  Daniel J. Veit,et al.  A Critical Survey of Agent-Based Wholesale Electricity Market Models , 2008 .

[53]  Nigel Lucas,et al.  Characterizing generator behaviour: bidding strategies in the pool: A game theory analysis , 1993 .

[54]  Eamon McKeogh,et al.  CONFLICTS BETWEEN ELECTRICITY MARKET LIBERALISATION AND WIND ENERGY POLICIES , 2002 .

[55]  Michael Milligan,et al.  Design and operation of power systems with large amounts of wind power: State of the art report , 2007 .

[56]  Donald Hertzmark,et al.  Risk assessment methods for power utility planning , 2007 .

[57]  S. Awerbuch.  Market-based IRP: It's easy!!! , 1995 .

[58]  K. E. Bollinger,et al.  Applications of artificial intelligence in power systems , 1997 .

[59]  Leif Gustavsson,et al.  CO2 mitigation costs of large-scale bioenergy technologies in competitive electricity markets , 2003 .