On the contribution of groundwater storage to interannual streamflow anomalies in the Colorado River basin

We assess the significance of groundwater stor- age for seasonal streamflow forecasts by evaluating its con- tribution to interannual streamflow anomalies in the 29 trib- utary sub-basins of the Colorado River. Monthly and an- nual changes in total basin storage are simulated by two implementations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model - the standard release of the model, and an alternate version that has been modified to include the SIMple Groundwater Model (SIMGM), which represents an unconfined aquifer underlying the soil column. These estimates are compared to those resulting from basin- scale water balances derived exclusively from observational data and changes in terrestrial water storage from the Grav- ity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. Changes in simulated groundwater storage are then com- pared to those derived via baseflow recession analysis for 72 reference-quality watersheds. Finally, estimates are statis- tically analyzed for relationships to interannual streamflow anomalies, and predictive capacities are compared across storage terms. We find that both model simulations result in similar estimates of total basin storage change, that these es- timates compare favorably with those obtained from basin- scale water balances and GRACE data, and that baseflow recession analyses are consistent with simulated changes in groundwater storage. Statistical analyses reveal essentially no relationship between groundwater storage and interannual streamflow anomalies, suggesting that operational seasonal streamflow forecasts, which do not account for groundwater conditions implicitly or explicitly, are likely not detrimen- tally affected by this omission in the Colorado River basin.

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