Cleaning the Air on EPA's New Emissions Proposal

Care to spend $2 billion or more a year on a health measure with no detectable health benefits? The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is preparing to do precisely that in the auto emission rules that President Clinton announced May 1. The EPA proposal is intended to reduce nitrogen oxide (NO x ) and hydrocarbon emissions and the sulfur content of gasoline. The proposed rules would also require that sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and pickups meet the same emissions standards as passenger cars; as a result, some larger SUV models may be forced off the market entirely. While the new regulations will increase auto and gasoline prices, their effect on levels of NO x and hydrocarbons, which are the precursors of smog, will be far less certain; in fact, they may produce no reductions in smog. According to a study by the American Automobile Association, 75 to 85 percent of smog precursors in major cities are from non-automobile sources. Moreover, while NO x from automobiles and small trucks fell 33 percent between 1970 and 1996, NO x from non-auto sources increased by 16 percent during the same period. 1 In fact, EPA’s proposal could actually retard the air quality improvements that have resulted from the continuing replacement of older, more-polluting vehicles with newer, cleaner ones. Because the EPA rules will drive up new-car prices and may actually eliminate certain vehicle models, they will cause some consumers to hang on to their old vehicles for far longer than they otherwise would have. 2