Comparing New Keynesian Models of the Business Cycle: A Bayesian Approach

This paper estimates and compares four versions of the New Keynesian model with nominal rigidities using a Bayesian approach. Our empirical results are as follows. First, the authors find that adding price indexation improves the fit of Calvo's (1983) model. Second, models with both staggered price and staggered wage contracts dominate models with only price rigidities. Third, introducing wage indexation does not significantly improve the fit. Fourth, all model estimates suggest a high degree of price stickiness. Fifth, the estimates of labor supply elasticity are higher in models with both staggered price and staggered wage contracts. And finally, the estimated inflation parameters of the Taylor rule are stable across models.

[1]  Julio J. Rotemberg,et al.  An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy , 1997, NBER Macroeconomics Annual.

[2]  Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts , 1999 .

[3]  John Geweke,et al.  Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report 249 Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models: Inference, Development, and Communication , 2022 .

[4]  Eric M. Leeper,et al.  Assessing Simple Policy Rules: A View from a Complete Macroeconomic Model , 2001 .

[5]  J. Galí,et al.  Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory , 1998 .

[6]  Jinill Kim Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy , 2000 .

[7]  R. Kato,et al.  Matlab code for a sticky wage/price model , 2002 .

[8]  Lawrence J. Christiano,et al.  Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy , 2001, Journal of Political Economy.

[9]  John B. Taylor Staggered Price and Wage Setting in Macroeconomics , 1998 .

[10]  F. Smets,et al.  An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area. NBB Working Paper Nr. 35 , 2002 .

[11]  H. Jeffreys,et al.  Theory of probability , 1896 .

[12]  Joseph G. Altonji Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: Evidence from Micro Data , 1986, Journal of Political Economy.

[13]  P. Ireland,et al.  Sticky-Price Models of the Business Cycle: Specification and Stability , 2000 .

[14]  John B. Taylor Chapter 15 Staggered price and wage setting in macroeconomics , 1999 .

[15]  Beth F. Ingram,et al.  A Bayesian approach to dynamic macroeconomics , 2000 .

[16]  Andrew T. Levin,et al.  Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts , 1999, Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital: Volume 52, Issue 4.

[17]  Ellen R. McGrattan,et al.  Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem? , 1996 .

[18]  Jesús Fernández-Villaverde,et al.  Comparing Dynamic Equilibrium Economies to Data: A Bayesian Approach , 2003 .

[19]  Jordi Galí,et al.  Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory , 1998 .

[20]  Frank Smets,et al.  An Estimated Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area , 2002, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[21]  Argia M. Sbordone An Optimizing Model of U.S. Wage and Price Dynamics , 2001 .

[22]  G. Calvo Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework , 1983 .

[23]  J. Galí,et al.  Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis , 1999 .

[24]  E. Leeper,et al.  Assessing Simple Policy Rules: A View from a Complete Macro Model , 2000 .

[25]  B. Bernanke,et al.  Measuring Monetary Policy , 1995 .

[26]  Olivier J. Blanchard,et al.  Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand , 1987 .

[27]  A. Gelfand,et al.  Bayesian Model Choice: Asymptotics and Exact Calculations , 1994 .

[28]  John B. Taylor Discretion versus policy rules in practice , 1993 .