Going beyond two degrees? The risks and opportunities of alternative options

Since the mid-1990s, the aim of keeping climate change within 2 °C has become firmly entrenched in policy discourses. In the past few years, the likelihood of achieving it has been increasingly called into question. The debate around what to do with a target that seems less and less achievable is, however, only just beginning. As the UN commences a two-year review of the 2 °C target, this article moves beyond the somewhat binary debates about whether or not it should or will be met, in order to analyse more fully some of the alternative options that have been identified but not fully explored in the existing literature. For the first time, uncertainties, risks, and opportunities associated with four such options are identified and synthesized from the literature. The analysis finds that the significant risks and uncertainties associated with some options may encourage decision makers to recommit to the 2 °C target as the least unattractive course of action.

[1]  B. Nerlich,et al.  Metaphor as a mechanism of global climate change governance: A study of international policies, 1992–2012 , 2015 .

[2]  J. M. Alier.  For a Prosperity without Growth , 2015 .

[3]  M. Burke,et al.  Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict , 2013, Science.

[4]  Jason Lowe,et al.  Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss , 2013 .

[5]  Reto Knutti,et al.  Energy budget constraints on climate response , 2013 .

[6]  A. Jordan,et al.  POLICY DISMANTLING , 2013 .

[7]  A. Jordan,et al.  The European Union: the polycentric climate policy leader? , 2013 .

[8]  Céline Guivarch,et al.  2°C or Not 2°C? , 2013 .

[9]  Oecd Staff.  Electricity in a climate-constrained world data and analyses , 2013 .

[10]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C , 2013 .

[11]  Jim W. Hall,et al.  Commentary: Proportionate adaptation , 2012 .

[12]  John Broderick,et al.  Has US Shale Gas Reduced CO2 emissions? Examining recent changes in emissions from the US power sector and traded fossil fuels: Examining recent changes in emissions from the US power sector and traded fossil fuels , 2012 .

[13]  Matthew J. Hornsey,et al.  Promoting pro-environmental action in climate change deniers , 2012 .

[14]  A. Jordan,et al.  Governing Climate Change: The Challenge of Mitigating and Adapting in a Warming World , 2012 .

[15]  J. Barry.  The Politics of Actually Existing Unsustainability: Human Flourishing in a Climate-Changed, Carbon Constrained World , 2012 .

[16]  Joeri Rogelj,et al.  Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates , 2012 .

[17]  S. Davis,et al.  Rethinking wedges , 2013 .

[18]  O. Edenhofer,et al.  The 2°C Target Reconsidered , 2012 .

[19]  O. Edenhofer.  Climate Change, Justice and Sustainability: Linking Climate and Development Policy , 2012 .

[20]  N. Nakicenovic,et al.  The Global Energy Assessment , 2012 .

[21]  S. Capstick.  Climate change discourses in use by the UK public : commonalities and variations over a fifteen year period , 2012 .

[22]  C. Shaw,et al.  Choosing a dangerous limit for climate change: an investigation into how the decision making process is constructed in public discourses , 2011 .

[23]  Milind Kandlikar,et al.  Preparing to Manage Climate Change Financing , 2011, Science.

[24]  Keywan Riahi,et al.  An integrated approach to energy sustainability , 2011 .

[25]  E. Hawkins,et al.  Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2 °C above pre-industrial levels , 2011 .

[26]  Gunnar Luderer,et al.  Exploring the feasibility of low stabilization targets , 2011 .

[27]  Jamie Pittock,et al.  National Climate Change Policies and Sustainable Water Management: Conflicts and Synergies , 2011 .

[28]  T. Lenton,et al.  2 °C or not 2 °C? That is the climate question , 2011, Nature.

[29]  T. Lenton.  Beyond 2°C: redefining dangerous climate change for physical systems , 2011 .

[30]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  The role of social and decision sciences in communicating uncertain climate risks , 2011 .

[31]  A. Jordan,et al.  Climate Change Policy in the European Union , 2011 .

[32]  Pamela J. Bretschneider,et al.  The future that may (or may not) come: How framing changes responses to uncertainty in climate change communications , 2011 .

[33]  S. O'Neill,et al.  Public engagement with carbon and climate change: To what extent is the public ‘carbon capable’? , 2011 .

[34]  M. New,et al.  Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications , 2011, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[35]  Alice Bows,et al.  Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world , 2011, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[36]  Clive Hamilton,et al.  Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world , 2011, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[37]  L. Massai.  The International Climate Change Regime , 2011 .

[38]  U. Hoffmann.  SOME REFLECTIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE, GREEN GROWTH ILLUSIONS AND DEVELOPMENT SPACE , 2011 .

[39]  D. Harvey.  The Future of the Commons , 2011 .

[40]  John C. Davis.  Chair's Summary , 2011 .

[41]  Carlo Jaeger,et al.  Three views of two degrees , 2010 .

[42]  K. Strzepek,et al.  The costs of adapting to climate change for infrastructure , 2010 .

[43]  S. Randalls.  History of the 2°C climate target , 2010 .

[44]  Robert E. Kopp,et al.  Assessing the climatic benefits of black carbon mitigation , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[45]  R. Swart,et al.  Policy options in a worst case climate change world , 2010 .

[46]  S. Rayner,et al.  The Hartwell Paper: a new direction for climate policy after the crash of 2009 , 2010 .

[47]  Michael Nye,et al.  Sociopsychological Perspectives on the Active Roles of Domestic Actors in Transition to a Lower Carbon Electricity Economy , 2010 .

[48]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment , 2010, Nature.

[49]  Steve Rayner,et al.  How to eat an elephant: a bottom-up approach to climate policy , 2010 .

[50]  C. Flachsland,et al.  The architecture of the global climate regime: a top-down perspective , 2010 .

[51]  C. O'Neill.  How close are we to the two degree limit , 2010 .

[52]  C. Flachsland,et al.  The Architecture of the Global Climate Regime , 2010 .

[53]  W. Neil Adger,et al.  Four Reasons for Concern about Adaptation to Climate Change , 2009 .

[54]  P. Irvine,et al.  The fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a geoengineered, high CO2 world , 2009 .

[55]  F. Chapin,et al.  A safe operating space for humanity , 2009, Nature.

[56]  V. Muzykantov.  Imaging of molecular signatures of specific structures, functions,and pathological alterations in the lung tissue.Chair's Summary. , 2009, Proceedings of the American Thoracic Society.

[57]  R. Swart,et al.  The mitigation–adaptation dichotomy and the role of spatial planning , 2009 .

[58]  N. Meinshausen,et al.  Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C , 2009, Nature.

[59]  Diana Liverman,et al.  Conventions of climate change: constructions of danger and the dispossession of the atmosphere , 2009 .

[60]  Robert J. Lempert,et al.  Do We Need Better Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate , 2009 .

[61]  Jan Corfee-Morlot,et al.  Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern” , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[62]  Florian G. Kaiser,et al.  Temporal pessimism and spatial optimism in environmental assessments: An 18-nation study , 2009 .

[63]  Sophie A. Nicholson-Cole.  Promoting Positive Engagement With Climate Change Through Visual and Iconic Representations , 2009 .

[64]  M. New,et al.  Mind the gap - policymakers must aim to avoid a 2°C temperature rise, but plan to adapt to 4°C , 2009 .

[65]  K. Caldeira,et al.  Global and Arctic climate engineering: numerical model studies , 2008, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[66]  Alice Bows,et al.  Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends , 2008, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[67]  S. Nooteboom.  Governance for sustainable development , 2008, 2008 First International Conference on Infrastructure Systems and Services: Building Networks for a Brighter Future (INFRA).

[68]  A. Stirling.  “Opening Up” and “Closing Down” , 2008 .

[69]  Andrew Jordan,et al.  The Governance of Sustainable Development: Taking Stock and Looking Forwards , 2008 .

[70]  G. Waghorn,et al.  Greenhouse gas emissions. , 2008 .

[71]  C. Rosenzweig,et al.  Adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture: an analysis of potential synergies , 2007 .

[72]  S. Rayner,et al.  Lifting the Taboo on the Adaptation , 2007 .

[73]  Steve Rayner,et al.  Climate change 2007: Lifting the taboo on adaptation , 2007, Nature.

[74]  R. Swart,et al.  Making integration of adaptation and mitigation work: mainstreaming into sustainable development policies? , 2007 .

[75]  T. Downing,et al.  Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation , 2007 .

[76]  W. Collins,et al.  Global climate projections , 2007 .

[77]  M. Maccracken.  Geoengineering: Worthy of Cautious Evaluation? , 2006 .

[78]  Seth Pettie,et al.  Mind the gap , 2006, Nature Reviews Drug Discovery.

[79]  David G. Victor,et al.  A Madisonian Approach to Climate Policy , 2005, Science.

[80]  P. Pierson.  Politics in Time: History, Institutions, and Social Analysis , 2004 .

[81]  J. Depledge,et al.  The international climate change regime , 2004 .

[82]  Scott Barrett,et al.  Thirteen plus one: a comparison of global climate policy architectures , 2003 .

[83]  Catrinus Jepma,et al.  Climate Policy 3 , 2003 .

[84]  Gregory C. Unruh.  Escaping carbon lock-in , 2002 .

[85]  J. Palutikof,et al.  Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability , 2001 .

[86]  John F. Cigas,et al.  The art of the state , 1992, SIGCSE '92.

[87]  Johan P. Olsen,et al.  The New Institutionalism: Organizational Factors in Political Life , 1983, American Political Science Review.