A Meta-Analysis of the Predictors of On-time High School Graduation in the United States

On-time high school graduation is an important topic in educational research, policy, and practice. However, no comprehensive meta-analyses had been conducted on this topic. The current meta-analysis reviewed 47 articles published from 1985 to April 2022 and aggregated the effect in four dimensions: student background, family support, school program and support, and school climate, with a focus on school-related practices, policies, and programs. Twelve factors along various dimensions had statistically significant positive or negative effects on on-time graduation. Implications of these findings are discussed.

[1]  M. Sun,et al.  The Longitudinal Effects of School Improvement Grants , 2021, Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis.

[2]  J. Zaff,et al.  English Learners and High School Graduation: A Pattern-Centered Approach to Understand within-Group Variations , 2021, Journal of Education for Students Placed at Risk (JESPAR).

[3]  Jianping Shen The theory of bifurcated educational system and its implications for school improvement , 2020, International Journal of Leadership in Education.

[4]  Matthew A. Kraft,et al.  Interpreting Effect Sizes of Education Interventions , 2020 .

[5]  Mathew C. Uretsky High School Completion in Context: Student- and School-Level Factors Related to On-Time Graduation , 2019, Teachers College Record: The Voice of Scholarship in Education.

[6]  Kevin Stange,et al.  DEPTH OVER BREADTH: The Value of Vocational Education in U.S. High Schools , 2019 .

[7]  Mariesa A. Herrmann,et al.  The Impact of School Improvement Grants on Student Outcomes: Findings From a National Evaluation Using a Regression Discontinuity Design , 2019, Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness.

[8]  Angela Johnson The Effects of English Learner Classification on High School Graduation and College Attendance , 2019, AERA Open.

[9]  G. Saw The Impact of Inclusive STEM High Schools on Student Outcomes: a Statewide Longitudinal Evaluation of Texas STEM Academies , 2018, International Journal of Science and Mathematics Education.

[10]  D. Rothstein,et al.  Cohort Profile: The National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79). , 2018, International journal of epidemiology.

[11]  A. Reynolds,et al.  Chronic absence, eighth-grade achievement, and high school attainment in the Chicago Longitudinal Study. , 2017, Journal of school psychology.

[12]  J. Zaff,et al.  Factors that Promote High School Graduation: a Review of the Literature , 2017 .

[13]  M. Long,et al.  Pledging to Do “Good”: An Early Commitment Pledge Program, College Scholarships, and High School Outcomes in Washington State , 2017 .

[14]  Min Huang,et al.  High School Graduation Rates across English Learner Student Subgroups in Arizona. REL 2017-205. , 2016 .

[15]  Sharon Sassler,et al.  REEXAMINING THE ASSOCIATION OF MATERNAL AGE AND MARITAL STATUS AT FIRST BIRTH WITH YOUTH EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT. , 2016, Journal of marriage and the family.

[16]  J. Fox,et al.  For All Kids: How Kentucky Is Closing the High School Graduation Gap for Low-Income Students. , 2016 .

[17]  Lora Cohen-Vogel,et al.  Cultures of Learning in Effective High Schools , 2016 .

[18]  Alex Casillas,et al.  Effects of Psychosocial Characteristics of Middle School Students on High School Grades and On-Time Graduation , 2016 .

[19]  Matthew F. Larsen The Effects of the New Orleans Post-Katrina Market-Based School Reforms on Student Achievement , 2015 .

[20]  Michael J. Kieffer,et al.  Navigating into, through, and beyond the middle grades: the role of middle grades attendance in staying on track for high school graduation. , 2014, Journal of school psychology.

[21]  Philip Oreopoulos,et al.  Pathways to Education: An Integrated Approach to Helping At-Risk High School Students , 2014, Journal of Political Economy.

[22]  Nicholas P. Allan,et al.  Distinguishing among disruptive behaviors to help predict high school graduation: does gender matter? , 2014, Journal of school psychology.

[23]  Paco Martorell,et al.  The Signaling Value of a High School Diploma , 2014, Journal of Political Economy.

[24]  H. Bloom,et al.  Can Small High Schools of Choice Improve Educational Prospects for Disadvantaged Students , 2014 .

[25]  Ariel M. Aloe An Empirical Investigation of Partial Effect Sizes in Meta-Analysis of Correlational Data , 2014, The Journal of general psychology.

[26]  M. Grillo,et al.  Academic Support as a Predictor of Retention to Graduation: New Insights on the Role of Tutoring, Learning Assistance, and Supplemental Instruction , 2013 .

[27]  Sharon Sassler,et al.  Family structure and high school graduation: how children born to unmarried mothers fare , 2013 .

[28]  E. Allensworth,et al.  What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating in Chicago Public High Schools: A Close Look at Course Grades, Failures, and Attendance in the Freshman year , 2013 .

[29]  A. Claessens,et al.  The Impact of Chicago&Apos;S Small High School Initiative , 2013 .

[30]  J. Goodman,et al.  Intensive Math Instruction and Educational Attainment: Long-Run Impacts of Double-Dose Algebra , 2013, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[31]  Núria Rodríguez-Planas Longer-Term Impacts of Mentoring, Educational Services, and Learning Incentives: Evidence from a Randomized Trial in the United States , 2012 .

[32]  Deven E Carlson,et al.  The Ineffectiveness of High School Graduation Credit Requirement Reforms , 2012 .

[33]  Michal Kurlaender,et al.  Investigating Middle School Determinants of High School Achievement and Graduation in Three California School Districts , 2012 .

[34]  C. Hirschman,et al.  The 9th grade shock and the high school dropout crisis. , 2012, Social science research.

[35]  M. Thurlow,et al.  Diploma Options, Graduation Requirements, and Exit Exams for Youth with Disabilities: 2011 National Study (NCEO Technical Report) , 2012 .

[36]  E. John,et al.  Constrained Curriculum in High Schools: The Changing Math Standards and Student Achievement, High School Graduation and College Continuation , 2012 .

[37]  Jennifer T. Cates,et al.  The Relationship Between a College Preparation Program and At-Risk Students' College Readiness , 2011 .

[38]  A. Schwartz,et al.  Do Small Schools Improve Performance in Large, Urban Districts? Causal Evidence from New York City , 2011 .

[39]  Laura A. Schifter High School Graduation of Students with Disabilities: How Long Does it Take? , 2011 .

[40]  D. J. Hernandez,et al.  Double Jeopardy: How Third-Grade Reading Skills and Poverty Influence High School Graduation. , 2011 .

[41]  Sean F. Reardon,et al.  Effects of Failing a High School Exit Exam on Course Taking, Achievement, Persistence, and Graduation , 2010 .

[42]  J. V. Reenen Book review: the race between education and technology , 2010 .

[43]  E. Stuart,et al.  Implications of middle school behavior problems for high school graduation and employment outcomes of young adults: estimation of a recursive model , 2010, Economics of education review.

[44]  Saskia Levy Thompson,et al.  Transforming the High School Experience: How New York City’s New Small Schools are Boosting Student Achievement and Graduation Rates , 2010 .

[45]  D. Ou To leave or not to leave? A regression discontinuity analysis of the impact of failing the high school exit exam , 2010 .

[46]  Sophie Chen,et al.  How Big is a Big Odds Ratio? Interpreting the Magnitudes of Odds Ratios in Epidemiological Studies , 2010, Commun. Stat. Simul. Comput..

[47]  Ervin F. Sparapani,et al.  The Importance of the Ninth Grade on High School Graduation Rates and Student Success in High School , 2010 .

[48]  D. Ou To Leave or Not to Leave? A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of the Impact of Failing High School Exit Exam. CEE DP 107. , 2009 .

[49]  J. R. Warren,et al.  Measuring High School Graduation Rates at the State Level , 2009 .

[50]  D. Moher,et al.  Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses: The PRISMA Statement , 2009, BMJ : British Medical Journal.

[51]  A. Okunade,et al.  Overweight Adolescents and On-time High School Graduation: Racial and Gender Disparities , 2009 .

[52]  S. Graham,et al.  The transition to high school as a developmental process among multiethnic urban youth. , 2009, Child development.

[53]  Stefanie DeLuca,et al.  High School Dropout and the Role of Career and Technical Education: A Survival Analysis of Surviving High School , 2008 .

[54]  Susan E. Sporte,et al.  Small High Schools on a Larger Scale: The Impact of School Conversions in Chicago , 2008 .

[55]  Arthur J. Reynolds,et al.  Predictors of educational attainment in the Chicago Longitudinal Study. , 2008 .

[56]  F. Furstenberg,et al.  Connecting Entrance and Departure , 2008 .

[57]  W. Collins,et al.  Exceptions to High School Dropout Predictions in a Low-Income Sample: Do Adults Make a Difference? , 2008, The Journal of social issues.

[58]  J. Heckman,et al.  THE AMERICAN HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION RATE: TRENDS AND LEVELS. , 2010, The review of economics and statistics.

[59]  Franklin J. Boster,et al.  Dropping Out of High School: A Meta-Analysis Assessing the Effect of Messages in the Home and in School , 2007 .

[60]  F. Furstenberg,et al.  Encouraging Education in an Urban School District: Evidence from the Philadelphia Educational Longitudinal Study , 2007 .

[61]  Michael G. Planty,et al.  Academic Pathways, Preparation, and Performance: A Descriptive Overview of the Transcripts from the High School Graduating Class of 2003-04. E.D. TAB. NCES 2007-316. , 2006 .

[62]  Marcus A. Winters,et al.  The Effect of Residential School Choice on Public High School Graduation Rates , 2005 .

[63]  Xin Ma A longitudinal assessment of early acceleration of students in mathematics on growth in mathematics achievement , 2005 .

[64]  Gregory J. Marchant,et al.  The relationship of high school graduation exams to graduation rates and SAT scores. , 2005 .

[65]  G. S. Pettit,et al.  Parent academic involvement as related to school behavior, achievement, and aspirations: demographic variations across adolescence. , 2004, Child development.

[66]  C. Swanson Who Graduates? Who Doesn't?: A Statistical Portrait of Public High School Graduation, Class of 2001 , 2004 .

[67]  R. Rumberger,et al.  The Early Employment and Further Education Experiences of High School Dropouts: A Comparative Study of the United States and Australia , 2003 .

[68]  Miguel P Caldas,et al.  Research design: qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches , 2003 .

[69]  J. Nichols Prediction Indicators for Students Failing the State of Indiana High School Graduation Exam , 2003 .

[70]  T. Dee Standards and Student Outcomes: Lessons from the "First Wave" of Education Reform. , 2002 .

[71]  B. S. Simon Family Involvement in High School: Predictors and Effects , 2001 .

[72]  Y. Xu,et al.  The Effects of Peer Tutoring on Undergraduate Students' Final Examination Scores in Mathematics , 2001 .

[73]  Sophia Catsambis Expanding Knowledge of Parental Involvement in Children's Secondary Education: Connections with High School Seniors' Academic Success , 2001 .

[74]  J. Bishop,et al.  The impacts of minimum competency exam graduation requirements on high school graduation, college attendance and early labor market success , 2001 .

[75]  P. O'Neill Special Education and High Stakes Testing for High School Graduation: An Analysis of Current Law and Policy , 2001 .

[76]  Richard J. Coley Differences in the Gender Gap: Comparisons across Racial/Ethnic Groups in Education and Work. Policy Information Report. , 2001 .

[77]  F. Furstenberg,et al.  Connecting Entrance and Departure: The Transition to Ninth Grade and High School Dropout - eScholarship , 2001 .

[78]  Xitao Fan Parental Involvement and Students' Academic Achievement: A Growth Modeling Analysis , 2001 .

[79]  Kathryn Wilson Using the Psid to Study the Effects of School Spending , 2000 .

[80]  S. Boggess Family structure, economic status, and educational attainment , 1998, Journal of population economics.

[81]  B. J. Rylance Predictors of High School Graduation or Dropping Out for Youths with Severe Emotional Disturbances , 1997 .

[82]  Eric M. Camburn,et al.  Professional Community in Chicago Elementary Schools: Facilitating Factors and Organizational Consequences , 1997 .

[83]  Karen Levesque,et al.  Vocational Education in the United States: The Early 1990s. , 1995 .

[84]  R. A. Wojtkiewicz,et al.  Simplicity and complexity in the effects of parental structure on high school graduation , 1993, Demography.

[85]  Gary D. Sandefur,et al.  The Effects of Parental Marital Status during Adolescence on High School Graduation , 1992 .

[86]  Brian M. Mcmahon Examining Student Level Variables as Predictors for On-Time High School Cohort Graduation. , 2018 .

[87]  Emily Webb Getting Students to Graduation: The Relationship Between Academic Interventions and Graduation Rates For Failing High School Students , 2016 .

[88]  Walter L. Burt,et al.  Learning-Centered School Leadership , 2015 .

[89]  F. Al-Shamali,et al.  Author Biographies. , 2015, Journal of social work in disability & rehabilitation.

[90]  C. Jackson,et al.  DO COLLEGE‐PREPARATORY PROGRAMS IMPROVE LONG‐TERM OUTCOMES? , 2014 .

[91]  Lavetta S. Ross The Influence of the Student Mobility Rate on the Graduation Rate in the State of New Jersey. , 2014 .

[92]  Regina Gail Hardinger The Relationship between Professional Learning Community Implementation and Academic Achievement and Graduation Rates in Georgia High Schools. , 2013 .

[93]  T. Wilkinson Examining the effects of state high school exit exam policies on selected outcomes of students with disabilities , 2012 .

[94]  C. Askew An investigation of the perceptions of teachers and principals on PLC implementation in the high schools of a large suburban school district , 2012 .

[95]  A. Onwuegbuzie,et al.  The Relationship between Ninth-Grade Retention and On-Time Graduation in a Southeast Texas High School. , 2011 .

[96]  David L. Silvernail,et al.  Increasing Maine's High School Graduation Rate: Necessary But Not Sufficient , 2011 .

[97]  Louise Stoll,et al.  Professional Learning Community , 2010 .

[98]  A. Schirm,et al.  The Impacts of Regular Upward Bound on Postsecondary Outcomes Seven to Nine Years after Scheduled High School Graduation. Final Report. , 2009 .

[99]  E. Hanushek,et al.  The role of cognitive skills in economic development , 2008 .

[100]  Lawrence F. Katz,et al.  The Race Between Education And Technology , 2008 .

[101]  Harold Thimbleby,et al.  A framework for design , 2007 .

[102]  K. Louis,et al.  The Role of Professional Learning Communities In International Education , 2002 .

[103]  Ellis P. Copeland,et al.  Students' stress, coping strategies, and school completion: A longitudinal perspective. , 2001 .

[104]  Jack L. Vevea,et al.  Fixed- and random-effects models in meta-analysis. , 1998 .