论文信息 - Self-Relevant Scenarios as Mediators of Likelihood Estimates and Compliance: Does Imagining Make It So?

Self-Relevant Scenarios as Mediators of Likelihood Estimates and Compliance: Does Imagining Make It So?

A series of studies w as conducted to determ ine the viability of a scenario pro-cedure as a com pliance technique. In four experim ents, subjects w ho, throughthe use of a structured scenario, w ere led to im agine them selves experiencingcertain events cam e to believe m ore strongl y that the events w ould befall them .T his prom otive effect of the scenario procedure on probability or likelihood es-tim ates occurred fo r both positive events (e.g., w in n in g a contest) an d negativ eevents (e.g., being arrested fo r a crim e) and occurred in both laboratory andfield contexts. F urtherm ore, and crucial to its relevance for com pliance, thescenario procedur e w as show n to influence not bnly probability judgm ents butalso behavior. H om eow ners w ho im agined them selves utilizing a cable televisionservice w ere subsequently m ore likely to subscribe to such a service w hen re-quested to do so w eeks later. Finally, it w as determ ined that the effec t of struc-tured scenarios on com pliance is no t du e to additional in fo rm atio n provided bythe scenario. Instead, an interpretation based on the availability heuristic isfavored.

R. Cialdini | W. L. Gregory | K. M. Carpenter | W. Gregory

[1] I. Ajzen,et al. Understanding Attitudes and Predicting Social Behavior , 1980 .

[2] Steven J. Sherman,et al. The effects of explaining hypothetical future events: From possibility to probability to actuality and beyond , 1981 .

[3] Daniel Kahneman,et al. Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability , 1973 .

[4] E. Aronson,et al. Performance expectancy as a determinant of actual performance. , 1962, Journal of abnormal and social psychology.

[5] J. Mowen,et al. Social psychology and plea bargaining: Applications, methodology, and theory. , 1978 .

[6] J. Carroll. The Effect of Imagining an Event on Expectations for the Event: An Interpretation in Terms of the Availability Heuristic. , 1978 .

[7] L. Ross,et al. Perseverance of Social Theories: The Role of Explanation in the Persistence of Discredited Information , 1980 .

[8] S. Sherman. On the self-erasing nature of errors of prediction. , 1980 .

[9] D. Bem. Self-Perception Theory , 1972 .

[10] P. Brickman,et al. Expectancy, feedback, and disconfirmation as independent factors in outcome satisfaction. , 1974 .

[11] M. Orne. On the social psychology of the psychological experiment: With particular reference to demand characteristics and their implications. , 1962 .