An expert system for diagnostics and estimation of steam turbine components condition

The report describes an expert system of probability type for diagnostics and state estimation of steam turbine technological subsystems components. The expert system is based on Bayes' theorem and permits to troubleshoot the equipment components, using expert experience, when there is a lack of baseline information on the indicators of turbine operation. Within a unified approach the expert system solves the problems of diagnosing the flow steam path of the turbine, bearings, thermal expansion system, regulatory system, condensing unit, the systems of regenerative feed-water and hot water heating. The knowledge base of the expert system for turbine unit rotors and bearings contains a description of 34 defects and of 104 related diagnostic features that cause a change in its vibration state. The knowledge base for the condensing unit contains 12 hypotheses and 15 evidence (indications); the procedures are also designated for 20 state parameters estimation. Similar knowledge base containing the diagnostic features and faults hypotheses are formulated for other technological subsystems of turbine unit. With the necessary initial information available a number of problems can be solved within the expert system for various technological subsystems of steam turbine unit: for steam flow path it is the correlation and regression analysis of multifactor relationship between the vibration parameters variations and the regime parameters; for system of thermal expansions it is the evaluation of force acting on the longitudinal keys depending on the temperature state of the turbine cylinder; for condensing unit it is the evaluation of separate effect of the heat exchange surface contamination and of the presence of air in condenser steam space on condenser thermal efficiency performance, as well as the evaluation of term for condenser cleaning and for tube system replacement and so forth. With a lack of initial information the expert system enables to formulate a diagnosis, calculating the probability of faults hypotheses, given the degree of the expert confidence in estimation of turbine components operation parameters.