论文信息 - FURTHER EVIDENCE ON THE ASYMMETRIC BEHAVIOR OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATES OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE

FURTHER EVIDENCE ON THE ASYMMETRIC BEHAVIOR OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATES OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE

Abstract Sichel recently reported that Neftci's claim to have found evidence in favor of asymmetry in the quarterly aggregate unemployment rate was based on an error. Using a modified version of Neftci's test, this paper is the first to report evidence of such asymmetry using a Markov procedure. The test is then applied to a group of quarterly sectoral unemployment rates. The results suggest that the primary source of asymmetry in the aggregate unemployment rate is the cyclical behavior of the unemployment rate in the manufacturing sector.

Philip Rothman | P. Rothman

[1] Daniel E. Sichel. Are Business Cycles Asymmetric? A Correction , 1989, Journal of Political Economy.

[2] T. W. Anderson,et al. Statistical Inference about Markov Chains , 1957 .

[3] J. Keynes,et al. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. , 1936 .

[4] What Do We Learn from Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series? , 1987 .

[5] Some Evidence on the Non-Linearity of Economic Time Series: , 1986 .

[6] James D. Hamilton. A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle , 1989 .

[7] Daniel E. Sichel. Business cycle asymmetry: a deeper look , 1993 .

[8] Salih N. Neftçi. Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle? , 1984, Journal of Political Economy.

[9] W. Mitchell. Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting. , 1928 .

[10] B. Falk. Further Evidence on the Asymmetric Behavior of Economic Time Series over the Business Cycle , 1986, Journal of Political Economy.