论文信息 - Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making: the value and demands of robust decision frameworks

Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making: the value and demands of robust decision frameworks

In this paper, we review the need for, use of, and demands on climate modeling to support so-called ‘robust’ decision frameworks, in the context of improving the contribution of climate information to effective decision making. Such frameworks seek to identify policy vulnerabilities under deep uncertainty about the future and propose strategies for minimizing regret in the event of broken assumptions. We argue that currently there is a severe underutilization of climate models as tools for supporting decision making, and that this is slowing progress in developing informed adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change. This underutilization stems from two root causes, about which there is a growing body of literature: one, a widespread, but limiting, conception that the usefulness of climate models in planning begins and ends with regional-scale predictions of multidecadal climate change; two, the general failure so far to incorporate learning from the decision and social sciences into climate-related decision support in key sectors. We further argue that addressing these root causes will require expanding the conception of climate models; not simply as prediction machines within ‘predict-then-act’ decision frameworks, but as scenario generators, sources of insight into complex system behavior, and aids to critical thinking within robust decision frameworks. Such a shift, however, would have implications for how users perceive and use information from climate models and, ultimately, the types of information they will demand from these models—and thus for the types of simulations and numerical experiments that will have the most value for informing decision making. WIREs Clim Change 2013, 4:39–60. doi: 10.1002/wcc.202 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. This article is a U.S. Government work, and as such, is in the public domain in the United States of America.

[1] David H. Guston,et al. Stabilizing the Boundary between US Politics and Science: , 1999, Social studies of science.

[2] Robert M. Hirsch,et al. A Perspective on Nonstationarity and Water Management 1 , 2011 .

[3] Binayak P. Mohanty,et al. Soil hydraulic properties in one‐dimensional layered soil profile using layer‐specific soil moisture assimilation scheme , 2012 .

[4] S. Rahmstorf. A new view on sea level rise , 2010 .

[5] Renate Hagedorn,et al. Strategies: Revolution in Climate Prediction is Both Necessary and Possible: A Declaration at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction , 2009 .

[6] Wallace S. Broecker,et al. Climate Change Prediction , 1999, Science.

[7] David B. Stephenson,et al. A Changing Climate for Prediction , 2007, Science.

[8] C. Tebaldi,et al. Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning , 2008 .

[9] Eric J. Barron. Beyond Climate Science , 2009, Science.

[10] B. Liepert,et al. Inter-model variability and biases of the global water cycle in CMIP3 coupled climate models , 2012 .

[11] R. Betts,et al. Land use/land cover changes and climate: modeling analysis and observational evidence , 2011 .

[12] R. Lempert,et al. Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climate change for water management agencies in the American west , 2010 .

[13] Jeffrey D Sachs,et al. Climate Change Adaptation in New York City: Building a Risk Management Response , 2010, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.

[14] W. T. Pfeffer,et al. Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise , 2008, Science.

[15] A. Pitman,et al. Ranking climate models by performance using actual values and anomalies: Implications for climate change impact assessments , 2010 .

[16] Brian C. O'Neill,et al. The Limits of Consensus , 2007, Science.

[17] J. Ravetz,et al. Public Participation in Sustainability Science: Models as metaphors , 2003 .

[18] David W. Keith,et al. Improving the way we think about projecting future energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide , 2008 .

[19] Peter Schwartz,et al. The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World , 1996 .

[20] Richard Washington,et al. Issues in the interpretation of climate model ensembles to inform decisions , 2007, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[21] Baruch Fischhoff,et al. What forecasts (seem to) mean , 1994 .

[22] Walter E. Baethgen,et al. Tilting the Odds in Maize Yields: How Climate Information Can Help Manage risks , 2009 .

[23] Suraje Dessai,et al. Robust adaptation to climate change , 2010 .

[24] R. Pielke,et al. Dynamical downscaling: Assessment of value retained and added using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) , 2005 .

[25] E. Gerber,et al. Intermodel variability of the poleward shift of the austral jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations linked to biases in 20th century climatology , 2010 .

[26] R. Neale,et al. The Impact of Convection on ENSO: From a Delayed Oscillator to a Series of Events , 2008 .

[27] N Oreskes,et al. Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences , 1994, Science.

[28] David Demeritt,et al. The Construction of Global Warming and the Politics of Science , 2001 .

[29] G. Meehl,et al. A Unified Modeling Approach to Climate System Prediction , 2009 .

[30] Angelo Rubino,et al. What will a new generation of world climate research and computing facilities bring to climate long-term predictions? , 2011 .

[31] R. Stouffer,et al. World Meteorological Organization , 1954, International Organization.

[32] Zachary Pirtle,et al. What does it mean when climate models agree? A case for assessing independence among general circulation models. , 2010 .

[33] Peter Kareiva,et al. U.S. Natural Resources and Climate Change: Concepts and Approaches for Management Adaptation , 2009, Environmental management.

[34] M. Weitzman,et al. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change , 2009, The Review of Economics and Statistics.

[35] Jim W. Hall,et al. Probabilistic climate scenarios may misrepresent uncertainty and lead to bad adaptation decisions , 2007 .

[36] Michael P. Jackson,et al. Building strong for tomorrow : NOAA climate service , 2010 .

[37] Richard T. Conant,et al. BEST PRACTICES IN PREDICTION FOR DECISION‐MAKING: LESSONS FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC AND EARTH SCIENCES , 2003 .

[38] Robert J. Lempert,et al. Scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities and robust responses , 2013, Climatic Change.

[39] S. J. Lambert,et al. Multi‐model decadal potential predictability of precipitation and temperature , 2008 .

[40] David W. Cash,et al. Knowledge systems for sustainable development , 2003, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[41] David W. Cash,et al. Making short-term climate forecasts useful: Linking science and action , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[42] Richard B. Rood,et al. Climate projections and their impact on policy and practice , 2010 .

[43] D A Stainforth,et al. Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions , 2007, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[44] Alan Harrison,et al. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change , 2009 .

[45] David Yates,et al. WEAP21—A Demand-, Priority-, and Preference-Driven Water Planning Model , 2005 .

[46] Benjamin P. Bryant,et al. Thinking Inside the Box , 2010 .

[47] Gregg M. Garfin,et al. More than Just Talk: Connecting Science and Decisionmaking , 2005 .

[48] S. Schneider,et al. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change Coordinating Lead , 2007 .

[49] A. Leiserowitz,et al. What is Sustainable Development? Goals, Indicators, Values, and Practice , 2005 .

[50] Noel Keenlyside,et al. Prospects for decadal climate prediction , 2010 .

[51] Nebojsa Nakicenovic,et al. Characterizing Climate-Change Uncertainties for Decision-Makers. An Editorial Essay , 2004 .

[52] E. Hawkins,et al. The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions , 2009 .

[53] Coleen Vogel,et al. Who can eat information? Examining the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecasts and regional climate-risk management strategies , 2006 .

[54] J. Murphy,et al. A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles , 2007, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[55] Lynn D. Rosentrater. Representing and using scenarios for responding to climate change , 2010 .

[56] E. Ostrom,et al. Earth System Science for Global Sustainability: Grand Challenges , 2010, Science.

[57] B. Hewitson,et al. Good Practice Guidance Paper on Assessing and Combining Multi Model Climate Projections , 2010 .

[58] Leonard A. Smith,et al. Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases , 2005, Nature.

[59] J. Hargreaves. Skill and uncertainty in climate models , 2010 .

[60] R. Pielke,et al. The neglected heart of science policy: reconciling supply of and demand for science , 2007 .

[61] Robert L. Wilby,et al. Evaluating climate model outputs for hydrological applications , 2010 .

[62] Francis W. Zwiers,et al. Lessons learned from IPCC AR4: scientific developments needed to understand, predict, and respond to climate change. , 2009 .

[63] Simon Dietz,et al. Adaptation in the UK: a decision-making process , 2010 .

[64] Reto Knutti,et al. The end of model democracy? , 2010 .

[65] David G. Groves,et al. A New Analytic Method for Finding Policy-Relevant Scenarios: , 2007 .

[66] Casey Brown,et al. The End of Reliability , 2010 .

[67] Lisa Goddard,et al. The Urgent Need for Improved Climate Models and Predictions , 2009 .

[68] D. Lemoine,et al. Climate Sensitivity Distributions Dependence on the Possibility that Models Share Biases , 2010 .

[69] R. Toumi,et al. Climate projections: Past performance no guarantee of future skill? , 2009 .

[70] Mitchell J. Small,et al. Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decision Making , 2009 .

[71] J. Räisänen,et al. How reliable are climate models? , 2007 .

[72] M. Hulme,et al. Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? , 2004 .

[73] Reto Knutti,et al. Risks of Model Weighting in Multimodel Climate Projections , 2010 .

[74] Soroosh Sorooshian,et al. Climate Change: The Need to Consider Human Forcings Besides Greenhouse Gases , 2009 .

[75] Patricia Gober,et al. Water Planning Under Climatic Uncertainty in Phoenix: Why We Need a New Paradigm , 2010 .

[76] Roger N. Jones. An Environmental Risk Assessment/Management Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments , 2001 .

[77] Edward B. Rastetter,et al. Validating models of ecosystem response to global change , 1996 .

[78] David W. Cash,et al. Countering the Loading-Dock Approach to Linking Science and Decision Making , 2006 .

[79] David Pollard,et al. A retrospective look at coupled ice sheet–climate modeling , 2010 .

[80] G. Roe,et al. Why Is Climate Sensitivity So Unpredictable? , 2007, Science.

[81] H. von Storch,et al. “Prediction” or “Projection”? , 2009 .

[82] P. Ciais,et al. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China , 2010, Nature.

[83] Myles T. Collins,et al. Managing the Risk of Uncertain Threshold Responses: Comparison of Robust, Optimum, and Precautionary Approaches , 2007, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[84] David G. Groves,et al. A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios , 2006, Manag. Sci..

[85] Wolfgang Lucht,et al. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[86] I. Grossmann. Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate. By the National Research Council. Washington (DC): National Academies Press. $46.00 (paper). xi + 188 p.; no index. ISBN: 978‐0‐309‐13737‐9. 2009. , 2011 .

[87] Suraje Dessai,et al. Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the ‘success’ of national climate scenarios? , 2008 .

[88] Nidhi Kalra,et al. Managing Climate Risks in Developing Countries with Robust Decision Making , 2011 .

[89] Antonio J. Busalacchi,et al. An Earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century , 2010 .

[90] R. Knutti,et al. Analyzing precipitation projections: A comparison of different approaches to climate model evaluation , 2011 .

[91] Robert J. Lempert,et al. Adapting to Climate Change: Climate prediction: a limit to adaptation? , 2009 .

[92] Casey Brown,et al. Decision scaling: Linking bottom‐up vulnerability analysis with climate projections in the water sector , 2012 .

[93] John H. Matthews,et al. Embracing uncertainty in freshwater climate change adaptation: A natural history approach , 2009 .

[94] J. Sterman. Risk Communication on Climate: Mental Models and Mass Balance , 2008, Science.

[95] Noreen Jameson. Wells Of Wisdom , 2012 .

[96] J. Shukla,et al. Monsoon Mysteries , 2007, Science.

[97] Michael D. Dettinger,et al. Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast , 2008 .

[98] Antony Millner. Climate Prediction for Adaptation: Who Needs What? , 2011 .

[99] Klaus Keller,et al. Robust Climate Policies Under Uncertainty: A Comparison of Robust Decision Making and Info‐Gap Methods , 2012, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[100] Robert L. Wilby,et al. Adaptation: Wells of wisdom , 2011 .

[101] Walter E. Baethgen,et al. Tilting the Odds in Maize Yields , 2009 .

[102] M. Collins. Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change , 2007, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[103] T. Johnson,et al. A Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water and Watershed Systems , 2009, Environmental management.

[104] Nicholas Stern,et al. Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy , 2011, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[105] Gary W. Yohe,et al. Managing the risks of climate thresholds: uncertainties and information needs , 2008 .

[106] Isaac M. Held,et al. The Gap between Simulation and Understanding in Climate Modeling , 2005 .

[107] Alex Farrell,et al. Environmental assessments: four under-appreciated elements of design , 2001 .

[108] James Roy King. Models as Metaphors , 1991 .

[109] C. Rosenzweig,et al. Global-Change Scenarios: Their Development and Use , 2007 .

[110] G. Ziervogel,et al. Using climate information for supporting climate change adaptation in water resource management in South Africa , 2010 .

[111] John D. Sterman,et al. All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist† , 2002 .

[112] M. Hulme,et al. Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: A case study on water resources management in the East of England , 2007 .

[113] R. Pielke,et al. Prediction : science, decision making, and the future of nature , 2000 .

[114] Nebojsa Nakicenovic,et al. Characterizing Climate-Change Uncertainties for Decision-Makers , 2004 .

[115] Peter Ruggiero,et al. A methodology for predicting future coastal hazards due to sea-level rise on the California Coast , 2011 .

[116] Charles Doutriaux,et al. Performance metrics for climate models , 2008 .