Assessing uncertainty in estimation of seismic response for PBEE

Summary State-of-the-art approaches to probabilistic assessment of seismic structural reliability are based on simulation of structural behavior via nonlinear dynamic analysis of computer models. Simulations are carried out considering samples of ground motions supposedly drawn from specific populations of signals virtually recorded at the site of interest. This serves to produce samples of structural response to evaluate the failure rate, which in turn allows to compute the failure risk (probability) in a time interval of interest. This procedure alone implies that uncertainty of estimation affects the probabilistic results. The latter is seldom quantified in risk analyses, although it may be relevant. This short paper discusses some basic issues and some simple statistical tools, which can aid the analyst towards the assessment of the impact of sample variability on fragility functions and the resulting seismic structural risk. On the statistical inference side, the addressed strategies are based on consolidated results such as the well-known delta method and on some resampling plans belonging to the bootstrap family. On the structural side, they rely on assumptions and methods typical in performance-based earthquake engineering applications. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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