The Future of B2C E-Commerce

Condensing the understanding of Business‐to‐Consumer (B2C) e‐commerce and its causal relations with the environment in a set of future meaningful, specific and exhaustive variables is a prerequisite for long‐term forecasting. There is no consensus regarding even present quantitative estimates of e‐commerce, nor does current research pinpoint immediate cause or effect. In around 50 semi‐structured interviews with cross‐functional e‐commerce practitioners, academics, users and non‐users, 14 variables describing the future structure of e‐commerce and 35 environment variables have been identified. The understanding of e‐commerce is focusing on the terms ‘automation’ and ‘spatial separated delivery’, leading to a differentiation between distance selling e‐commerce and automated transactions at retail outlets. The environments investigated include Society, Distribution, Technology, Retail Outlets, Socio‐Politics and Market environments, providing a holistic view on the long‐term outlook of e‐commerce.

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