Hydroclimatology of the Upper Madeira River basin: spatio-temporal variability and trends

ABSTRACT Rising in the Andes, the Madeira River drains the southwestern part of the Amazon basin, which is characterized by high geographical, biological and climatic diversity. This study uses daily records to assess the spatio-temporal runoff variability in the Madeira sub-basins. Results show that inter-annual variability of both discharge and rainfall differs between Andean and lowland tributaries. High-flow discharge variability in the Andean tributaries and the Guaporé River is mostly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific in austral summer, while tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST modulates rainfall and discharge variability in the lowlands. There also is a downward trend in the low-flow discharge of the lowland tributaries which is not observed in the Andes. Because low-flow discharge values at most lowland stations are negatively related to the SST in the tropical North Atlantic, these trends could be explained by the warming of this ocean since the 1970s. EDITOR A. Castellarin ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione

[1]  J. Marengo,et al.  Interannual Variability of the Rainy Season and Rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon Basin , 2001 .

[2]  J. Ronchail,et al.  Spatio‐temporal rainfall variability in the Amazon basin countries (Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, and Ecuador) , 2009 .

[3]  J. Tomasella,et al.  Extreme flood events in the Bolivian Amazon wetlands , 2016 .

[4]  Dennis P. Lettenmaier,et al.  Toward a unified view of the American monsoon systems , 2006 .

[5]  B. Ripley,et al.  Robust Statistics , 2018, Encyclopedia of Mathematical Geosciences.

[6]  Peter J. Huber,et al.  Robust Statistics , 2005, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics.

[7]  R. Naiman,et al.  Andean Influences on the Biogeochemistry and Ecology of the Amazon River , 2008 .

[8]  T. L. Toan,et al.  Mapping of flood dynamics and spatial distribution of vegetation in the Amazon floodplain using multitemporal SAR data , 2007 .

[9]  Josyane Ronchail,et al.  Rainfall hotspots over the southern tropical Andes: Spatial distribution, rainfall intensity, and relations with large‐scale atmospheric circulation , 2015 .

[10]  W. Junk,et al.  EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WETLANDS Current state of knowledge regarding South America wetlands and their future under global climate change , 2012 .

[11]  J. Ronchail,et al.  Inundations in the Mamoré basin (south-western Amazon—Bolivia) and sea-surface temperature in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans , 2005 .

[12]  M. Molinier,et al.  La variabilité hydrologique actuelle dans le bassin de l'Amazone , 1998 .

[13]  Jhan Carlo Espinoza,et al.  Impactos de El Niño y La Niña en las lluvias del Perú (1965-2007) , 2014 .

[14]  M. Molinier,et al.  Les régimes hydrologiques de l'Amazone et de ses affluents , 1996 .

[15]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Improved Global Sea Surface Temperature Analyses Using Optimum Interpolation , 1994 .

[16]  J. Guyot,et al.  Tectonic control of erosion and sedimentation in the Amazon Basin of Bolivia , 2009 .

[17]  Gérard Cochonneau,et al.  Interannual rainfall variability in the Amazon basin and sea‐surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Oceans , 2002 .

[18]  M. Smith Extreme Climatic Events , 2013 .

[19]  D. Labat,et al.  Discharge variability within the Amazon basin. , 2005 .

[20]  L. Lauzanne,et al.  Les milieux aquatiques de la région de Trinidad (Béni, Amazonie bolivienne) , 1992 .

[21]  M. Roche,et al.  Water resources, salinity and salt yields of the rivers of the Bolivian Amazon , 1988 .

[22]  Ajit Subramaniam,et al.  Causes and impacts of the 2005 Amazon drought , 2008 .

[23]  Raymond S. Bradley,et al.  Mean annual temperature trends and their vertical structure in the tropical Andes , 2000 .

[24]  C. Nobre,et al.  The Drought of Amazonia in 2005 , 2008 .

[25]  J. Marengo,et al.  Characteristics and spatio-temporal variability of the Amazon River Basin Water Budget , 2005 .

[26]  Philippe Vauchel,et al.  From drought to flooding: understanding the abrupt 2010–11 hydrological annual cycle in the Amazonas River and tributaries , 2012 .

[27]  Oliver L. Phillips,et al.  Intensification of the Amazon hydrological cycle over the last two decades , 2013 .

[28]  G. Poveda,et al.  Seasonal precipitation patterns along pathways of South American low‐level jets and aerial rivers , 2014 .

[29]  Josyane Ronchail,et al.  The extreme 2014 flood in south-western Amazon basin: the role of tropical-subtropical South Atlantic SST gradient , 2014 .

[30]  J. Marengo Interdecadal variability and trends of rainfall across the Amazon basin , 2004 .

[31]  S. Yue,et al.  Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation , 2003 .

[32]  J. Marengo Long‐term trends and cycles in the hydrometeorology of the Amazon basin since the late 1920s , 2009 .

[33]  P. Young,et al.  Time series analysis, forecasting and control , 1972, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control.

[34]  Byron D. Tapley,et al.  The 2009 exceptional Amazon flood and interannual terrestrial water storage change observed by GRACE , 2010 .

[35]  D. Labat,et al.  Contrasting regional discharge evolutions in the Amazon basin (1974–2004) , 2009 .

[36]  Pavel Kabat,et al.  Climate Variability and Trends in Bolivia , 2012 .

[37]  N. Arnell,et al.  The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale , 2013 .

[38]  Frédéric Frappart,et al.  The Major Floods in the Amazonas River and Tributaries (Western Amazon Basin) during the 1970–2012 Period: A Focus on the 2012 Flood , 2013 .

[39]  S. Yue,et al.  Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series , 2002 .

[40]  Thomas A. Hennig,et al.  The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission , 2001, Digital Earth Moving.

[41]  Luc Bourrel,et al.  The dynamics of floods in the Bolivian Amazon Basin , 2009 .

[42]  Ning Zeng,et al.  An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall , 2010 .

[43]  Josyane Ronchail,et al.  ENSO and rainfall along the Zongo valley (Bolivia) from the Altiplano to the Amazon basin , 2006 .

[44]  J. Marengo,et al.  Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts , 2015 .

[45]  P. Fearnside Impacts of Brazil's Madeira River Dams: Unlearned lessons for hydroelectric development in Amazonia , 2014 .

[46]  C. M. Krepper,et al.  Low Frequency Variability of Rainfall in Southeastern South America , 1998 .

[47]  D. Labat,et al.  Fluctuations in the monthly discharge of Guyana Shield rivers, related to Pacific and Atlantic climate variability , 2012 .

[48]  J. Foley,et al.  Combined Effects of Deforestation and Doubled Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations on the Climate of Amazonia , 2000 .

[49]  J. Guyot,et al.  Dissolved solids and suspended sediment yields in the Rio Madeira basin, from the Bolivian Andes to the Amazon , 1996 .

[50]  D. Labat,et al.  Basin-scale analysis of rainfall and runoff in Peru (1969–2004): Pacific, Titicaca and Amazonas drainages , 2012 .

[51]  J. Espinoza,et al.  Climate variability and extreme drought in the upper Solimões River (western Amazon Basin): Understanding the exceptional 2010 drought , 2011 .

[52]  G. Komen,et al.  Climate variability , 2008, The Climate System.

[53]  E. Berbery,et al.  Springtime Precipitation and Water Vapor Flux over Southeastern South America , 2000 .

[54]  A. Manzi,et al.  A quick look at the 2012 record flood in the Amazon Basin , 2013 .

[55]  W. Collischonn,et al.  Further evidence of changes in the hydrological regime of the River Paraguay : part of a wider phenomenon of climate change? , 2001 .

[56]  Carlos R. Mechoso,et al.  Interannual and Decadal Cycles in River Flows of Southeastern South America , 1998 .

[57]  H. Clarke The Drought , 1936, Nature.

[58]  C. Nobre,et al.  Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin , 2011, Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

[59]  Yann L'hote,et al.  Evolution du débit de l’Amazone à Óbidos de 1903 à 1999 / Evolution of the River Amazon’s discharge at Óbidos from 1903 to 1999 , 2004 .

[60]  J. Marengo Long‐term trends and cycles in the hydrometeorology of the Amazon basin since the late 1920s , 2009 .

[61]  S. Hamilton,et al.  Comparison of inundation patterns among major South American floodplains , 2002 .

[62]  J. Janowiak,et al.  The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present) , 2003 .

[63]  J. Marengo,et al.  The drought of 2010 in the context of historical droughts in the Amazon region , 2011 .

[64]  Paulo Nobre,et al.  Amazon Deforestation and Climate Change in a Coupled Model Simulation , 2009 .

[65]  J. Chiang,et al.  Trend and uncertainty in spatial‐temporal patterns of hydrological droughts in the Amazon basin , 2016 .

[66]  J. Tomasella,et al.  Impacts of future climatic and land cover changes on the hydrological regime of the Madeira River basin , 2015, Climatic Change.