Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data

One topic on which Keynes did not disagree with classical economists was the cyclical behavior of real wages. Keynes (1936) as well as various classical writers predicted that real wages should move countercyclically. Quoting the General Theory (p. 17): "in general an increase in employment can only occur through the accompaniment of a decline in real wages. Thus, I am not disputing this vital fact which the classical economists have (rightly) asserted as indefeasible." This prediction is based on the premise of competition and a given short-run capital stock. Increases in employment then correspond to more intensive use of capital and, through diminishing product, lower real wages. For this reason, evidence by Dunlop (1938) and Tarshis (1939) that real wages move procyclically was viewed as paradoxical. Both Dunlop and Tarshis based their findings on an observed positive correlation between real and money wages, which, given the procyclical movement of money wages, implies a positive correlation between

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