Meeting Emissions Reduction Targets: A Probabilistic Lifecycle Assessment of the Production of Alternative Jet Fuels

In 2009, the aviation industry announced its commitment to address aviation’s environmental footprint by defining a four-pillar strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. One of these pillars concerns the development of more efficient technologies for aircraft and engines, and the replacement of fossil carbon-based energy sources by renewable and sustainable solutions. Novel fuel-efficient technologies with promising emission reduction potential are currently being developed around the world. For instance, new lighter materials, new engine architectures, and futuristic aircraft concepts are studied to decrease fuel consumption and thus improve the carbon footprint of the future worldwide fleet. However, the projected 5% average annual growth in air transportation will most likely offset the expected carbon savings from new technologies alone. Another option for the aviation industry is to reduce its carbon footprint by considering the use of bio-jet fuels produced from renewable biomass feedstocks. Cost is however a barrier to large-scale commercial deployment of alternative fuels in aviation. In addition, selecting sustainable biomass options for the production of alternative jet fuels is challenging due to uncertain social, economic, environmental, and climatic factors. In this paper, we first examine the potential of new aircraft and engine technologies to reduce aviation-related carbon emissions. We show that without additional measures, technology infusions are not sufficient to meet the ambitious carbon emissions reduction goal set forth by IATA. Next, we study how changing the fuel source by introducing biofuels has potential to alleviate the environmental footprint of aviation. In this analysis, we account for the uncertainties associated with the selection of biomass feedstock options and their corresponding refining processes to produce suitable “drop-in” bio-jet fuels. A probabilistic analysis encompassing likely scenarios is carried out and a visualization interface is proposed to substantiate and facilitate decision making by aviation industry stakeholders.

[1]  David L. Greene,et al.  Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Aviation and Marine Transportation: Mitigation Potential and Policies , 2010 .

[2]  Anselm Eisentraut,et al.  Sustainable Production of Second-Generation Biofuels: Potential and Perspectives in Major Economies and Developing Countries , 2010 .

[3]  Richard Murray,et al.  Technology Options for Improved Air Vehicle Fuel Efficiency: Executive Summary and Annotated Brief , 2006 .

[4]  Douglas C. Elliott,et al.  Catalytic hydroprocessing of biomass fast pyrolysis bio‐oil to produce hydrocarbon products , 2009 .

[5]  A. Bond,et al.  A multi‐criteria based review of models that predict environmental impacts of land use‐change for perennial energy crops on water, carbon and nitrogen cycling , 2013 .

[6]  Alexander Herr,et al.  An assessment of biomass for bioelectricity and biofuel, and for greenhouse gas emission reduction in Australia , 2012 .

[7]  A. Roth,et al.  RENEWABLE AVIATION FUELS - ASSESSMENT OF THREE SELECTED FUEL PRODUCTION PATHWAYS , 2012 .

[8]  Russell W Stratton,et al.  Quantifying variability in life cycle greenhouse gas inventories of alternative middle distillate transportation fuels. , 2011, Environmental science & technology.

[9]  R. H. Liebeck,et al.  Design of the Blended Wing Body Subsonic Transport , 2002 .

[10]  Hans Schulz,et al.  Short history and present trends of Fischer–Tropsch synthesis , 1999 .

[11]  James I. Hileman,et al.  A techno‐economic review of hydroprocessed renewable esters and fatty acids for jet fuel production , 2013 .

[12]  Christopher W. Wilson,et al.  Sustainability of supply or the planet: a review of potential drop-in alternative aviation fuels , 2010 .

[13]  R. Bailis,et al.  Greenhouse gas emissions and land use change from Jatropha curcas-based jet fuel in Brazil. , 2010, Environmental science & technology.

[14]  Hong Huo,et al.  Life-cycle assessment of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of soybean-derived biodiesel and renewable fuels. , 2009, Environmental science & technology.

[15]  Danae Diakoulaki,et al.  Multi-criteria decision analysis and cost–benefit analysis of alternative scenarios for the power generation sector in Greece , 2007 .

[16]  Stanislav Miertus,et al.  Development of a decision support tool for the assessment of biofuels , 2011 .

[17]  Jiangjiang Wang,et al.  Review on multi-criteria decision analysis aid in sustainable energy decision-making , 2009 .

[18]  Fu Zhao,et al.  Life cycle assessment of potential biojet fuel production in the United States. , 2011, Environmental science & technology.

[19]  Ching-Lai Hwang,et al.  Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making - Methods and Applications , 1992, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems.

[20]  H. Cai,et al.  Life-cycle energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of production of bioethanol from sorghum in the United States , 2013, Biotechnology for Biofuels.

[21]  Ching-Lai Hwang,et al.  A new approach for multiple objective decision making , 1993, Comput. Oper. Res..