Risk factors for casualty in earthquakes: The application of epidemiologic principles to structural engineering☆

Abstract Past investigations of the public health consequences of natural disasters, such as earthquakes, have generally suffered from a lack of comprehensive data due, in part, to the difficulty faced in mounting a significant data collection effort in the aftermath of such an event. This lack of meaningful data severely hampers the ability of casualty researchers to develop reliable and robust estimates of death and injury in future events; these numbers are critical in planning for mitigation and response activities. The basic data required as input to these models are risk factors for injury which can only effectively be estimated through a careful epidemiologic study of those injured (and not injured) in past events. This paper outlines the field of earthquake injury epidemiology and discusses the application of the collected data. An example of a recent case-control study (in progress) is given. Implications for the broader application of these techniques to structural engineering are suggested.