Modelling with Systems Dynamics as a Method to Bridge the Gap between Politics, Planning and Science? Lessons Learnt from the Development of the Land Use and Transport Model MARS

Abstract Systems Dynamics (SD) was founded by John Forrester and colleagues in the late 1950s at the MIT. SD offers qualitative and quantitative tools to analyse systems. The major qualitative method is Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs). CLDs facilitate the description, communication and discussion of any kind of system. CLDs allow statements about the principal system behaviour, i.e. whether a state of dynamic equilibrium can be reached or not. CLDs can form the basis for quantitative dynamic modelling. The major quantitative SD principles are stocks and flows. Qualitative and quantitative methods have been used to develop the dynamic land use and transport interaction model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator). Operational models exist in 14 European, Asian and South American cities. Versions of Washington DC and Ho Chi Minh City are under development. An interface called ‘flight simulator’ which allows to select policies from a predefined set, run the model and calculate the effects of the selected policy accompanies MARS. The flight simulator tool was used in workshops with politicians, planners and researchers in Vietnam and Brazil. The aim of this paper is to discuss the potential of an SD‐based approach to bridge the gap between politics, planning and science.

[1]  Paul Pfaffenbichler,et al.  Overcoming Barriers to Model Use , 2009 .

[2]  Paul Pfaffenbichler,et al.  The Integrated Dynamic Land Use and Transport Model MARS , 2008 .

[3]  David Metz.  The Newbury Bypass : what we can learn from before and after studies , 2007 .

[4]  Paul Pfaffenbichler,et al.  Can Decision Making Processes Benefit from a User Friendly Land Use and Transport Interaction Model , 2006 .

[5]  John D. Sterman,et al.  Business dynamics : systems thinking and modelling for acomplex world , 2002 .

[6]  Paul Pfaffenbichler,et al.  Decision making processes and their interaction with transport energy consumption: A comparison between Europe and South-East-Asia , 2007 .

[7]  J Swanson,et al.  Business Dynamics—Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World , 2002, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[8]  Lauren Keller Johnson,et al.  Systems Thinking Basics: From Concepts to Causal Loops , 1997 .

[9]  Michael Garet,et al.  Introduction to Computer Simulation: The System Dynamics Approach , 1982 .

[10]  Vicky Forgie,et al.  UvA-DARE Making planning support systems matter : improving the use of planning support systems for integrated land use and transport strategy-making , 2010 .

[11]  John Bates,et al.  History of Demand Modelling , 2007 .

[12]  N Roberts,et al.  Introduction to Computer Simulation—A System Dynamics Modeling Approach , 1994 .

[13]  Paul Pfaffenbichler,et al.  “Ideal” Decision Making Processes for Transport Planning: A Comparison between Europe and South East Asia , 2008 .