Implications of ecological data constraints for integrated policy and livelihoods modelling: An example from East Kalimantan, Indonesia

Policy and human livelihoods modelling increasingly demands integrated research which requires ecological expertise. However, contributions from ecologists are often based on sparse data. Rather than discounting such data, in this paper we demonstrate how ecological modelling can effectively contribute to the development of policy recommendations in spite of data constraints. In a petrol subsidy analysis in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, we accounted for ecological data uncertainty by (a) assuming large parameter value ranges and (b) conducting a robustness test for policy recommendations. In addition to data scarcity, counter-intuitive results emerged emphasising the need for model validation. These counter-intuitive results indicated that decreasing petrol prices led to increased poverty. This informed a policy recommendation to prevent the reduction of petrol prices below IDR 5500 per litre. Using two key livelihood resources (fish and honey), we found that while a traditional sensitivity analysis suggested highly robust results, a robustness test indicated that policy recommendations would change if the incorrectness of parameter values approached 50%. The results show that ecological modelling can contribute effectively in spite of sparse data to guide policy, as well as identifying future research priorities.

[1]  Holger R. Maier,et al.  Future research challenges for incorporation of uncertainty in environmental and ecological decision-making , 2008 .

[2]  Craig A. Aumann,et al.  A methodology for developing simulation models of complex systems , 2007 .

[3]  Helen M. Regan,et al.  A TAXONOMY AND TREATMENT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION BIOLOGY , 2002 .

[4]  T. Seeley,et al.  Colony migration in the tropical honey beeApis dorsata F. (Hymenoptera: Apidae) , 1994, Insectes Sociaux.

[5]  Nicholas Mark Gotts,et al.  Comparison of empirical methods for building agent-based models in land use science , 2007 .

[6]  Christophe Le Page,et al.  Agent based simulation of a small catchment water management in northern Thailand: Description of the CATCHSCAPE model , 2003 .

[7]  E. L. Jackson,et al.  Recovery or decline of the northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling , 2009 .

[8]  Milo D Adkison,et al.  Drawbacks of complex models in frequentist and Bayesian approaches to natural-resource management. , 2009, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[9]  N Oreskes,et al.  Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences , 1994, Science.

[10]  Anna Straton,et al.  Simulating impacts of water trading in an institutional perspective , 2009, Environ. Model. Softw..

[11]  Robert Gilmore Pontius,et al.  Useful techniques of validation for spatially explicit land-change models , 2004 .

[12]  Vincent Ginot,et al.  Selecting parameters for calibration via sensitivity analysis: An individual-based model of mosquitofish population dynamics , 2008 .

[13]  Paul Windrum,et al.  A Critical Guide to Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models in Economics: Methodologies, Procedures, and Open Problems , 2007 .

[14]  K. Mengersen,et al.  The power of expert opinion in ecological models using Bayesian methods: impact of grazing on birds , 2005 .

[15]  Magnus Moglia,et al.  Modelling an urban water system on the edge of chaos , 2010, Environ. Model. Softw..

[16]  Andrew Reeson,et al.  Agent‐based modeling in ecological economics , 2010, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.

[17]  Aaron M. Ellison,et al.  AN INTRODUCTION TO BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH AND ENVIRONMENTAL , 1996 .

[18]  A R. Watkinson,et al.  Policy making within ecological uncertainty: lessons from badgers and GM crops. , 2001, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[19]  Eve McDonald-Madden,et al.  Making robust decisions for conservation with restricted money and knowledge , 2008 .

[20]  Malka Gorfine,et al.  Sensitivity analysis for complex ecological models - A new approach , 2011, Environ. Model. Softw..

[21]  M. S. Christensen.  Investigations on the Ecology and Fish Fauna of the Mahakam River in East Kalimantan (Borneo), Indonesia , 1992 .

[22]  Scott Moss,et al.  Alternative Approaches to the Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models , 2007, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[23]  Alexander Smajgl,et al.  Challenging beliefs through multi-level participatory modelling in Indonesia , 2010, Environ. Model. Softw..

[24]  J. Gareth Polhill,et al.  The ODD protocol: A review and first update , 2010, Ecological Modelling.

[25]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Progress in integrated assessment and modelling , 2002, Environ. Model. Softw..

[26]  Jean-Christophe Castella,et al.  Combination of process-oriented and pattern-oriented models of land-use change in a mountain area of Vietnam , 2007 .

[27]  T. Peterson,et al.  Quantitative modeling of coupled natural/human systems: simulation of societal constraints on environmental action drawing on Luhmann's social theory , 2002 .

[28]  Tropical Rain Forests of the Far East. , 1985 .

[29]  David M. Walker,et al.  Stochastic modelling of ecological processes using hybrid Gibbs samplers , 2006 .

[30]  D. Roubik,et al.  Pollination Ecology and the Rain Forest: Sarawak Studies , 2010 .

[31]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Ten iterative steps in development and evaluation of environmental models , 2006, Environ. Model. Softw..

[32]  A. Tsing,et al.  Friction: An Ethnography of Global Connection by Anna Lowenhaupt Tsing , 2009, Transforming Anthropology.

[33]  François Bousquet,et al.  Multi-agent simulations and ecosystem management: a review , 2004 .

[34]  T. Itioka,et al.  Six-Year Population Fluctuation of the Giant Honey Bee Apis dorsata (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in a Tropical Lowland Dipterocarp Forest in Sarawak , 2001 .

[35]  S. Asseng,et al.  Rainfall-human-spatial interactions in a salinity-prone agricultural region of the Western Australian wheat-belt , 2010 .

[36]  Pongthep Akratanakul.  Beekeeping in Asia. , 1986 .

[37]  Cathy Hawes,et al.  How might we model an ecosystem , 2009 .

[38]  Gunnar Abrahamson,et al.  Terminology for model credibility , 1980 .

[39]  T. Sunderland,et al.  Forest products, livelihoods and conservation: case studies on non-timber forest product systems. volume 2 – Africa , 2004 .

[40]  N. Harris,et al.  Identifying optimal areas for REDD intervention: East Kalimantan, Indonesia as a case study , 2008 .

[41]  Arild Angelsen,et al.  Economic Crisis, Small Farmer Well-Being, and Forest Cover Change in Indonesia , 2001 .

[42]  Bruce F. Baird,et al.  Managerial Decisions Under Uncertainty: An Introduction to the Analysis of Decision Making , 1989 .

[43]  Mervyn Thomas,et al.  A Novel Bayesian Approach to Assessing Impacts of Rain Forest Logging , 1996 .

[44]  B. Marcot,et al.  Bayesian belief networks: applications in ecology and natural resource management , 2006 .

[45]  M. S. Christensen.  The artisanal fishery of the Mahakam River floodplain in East Kalimantan, Indonesia , 1993 .

[46]  A. Starfield.  A pragmatic approach to modeling for wildlife management , 1997 .

[47]  John D. Bredehoeft,et al.  Ground-water models cannot be validated , 1992 .

[48]  C. S. Holling.  Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management , 2005 .

[49]  Alex Smajgl,et al.  Water policy impact assessment – combining modelling techniques in the Great Barrier Reef region , 2009 .

[50]  Birgit Müller,et al.  A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models , 2006 .

[51]  Robert G. Sargent,et al.  Verification and validation of simulation models , 2013, Proceedings of Winter Simulation Conference.