Probabilistic risk, sustainability, and utility associated with ship grounding hazard

Abstract Ship grounding is a major maritime hazard that poses great consequences. Risk and sustainability associated with ship grounding need to be rationally assessed for a safe and sustainable maritime traffic. This paper presents a probabilistic risk analysis of ship grounding hazard considering damage caused by bottom penetration. Sustainability is introduced for ship grounding risk analysis for a synthesized assessment of the damage consequences. Sustainability indicators assess the economic, social, and environmental performance following a hazard event. In terms of ship grounding incident this includes the ship damage repair, operational delay, cargo loss, injury or fatality of crew, and environmental impact such as clean-up of oil spill. The economical, social, and environmental metrics are evaluated separately and then converted into an integrated monetary metric. Utility function that can incorporate attitude towards risk taking is used in the analysis for decision making purposes in risk control. The proposed approach is illustrated using a hypothetical oil tanker grounding in the Delaware Bay region.

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