Fire behaviour knowledge in Australia: a synthesis of disciplinary and stakeholder knowledge on fire spread prediction capability and application

[1]  Ra Bradstock,et al.  Fire in Semiarid, Mallee Shrublands - Size of Flames From Discrete Fuel Arrays and Their Role in the Spread of Fire , 1993 .

[2]  Vinod Srinivasan,et al.  Heat transfer—A review of 2003 literature , 2006 .

[3]  Csiro. Sustainable Ecosystems. Improving operational models of fire behaviour , 2009 .

[4]  Miguel G. Cruz,et al.  Field-based fire behaviour research: past and future roles , 2009 .

[5]  A. M. G. Lopes,et al.  FireStation - an integrated software system for the numerical simulation of fire spread on complex topography , 2002, Environ. Model. Softw..

[6]  John Handmer,et al.  Communicating uncertainty via probabilities: The case of weather forecasts , 2007 .

[7]  Philip Cunningham,et al.  Coherent vertical structures in numerical simulations of buoyant plumes from wildland fires , 2005 .

[8]  Domingos Xavier Viegas,et al.  Slope and wind effects on fire propagation , 2004 .

[9]  C. E. Van Wagner,et al.  Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System , 1987 .

[10]  F. H. Harlow,et al.  FIRETEC: A transport description of wildfire behavior , 1997 .

[11]  N. Cheney,et al.  The Influence of Fuel, Weather and Fire Shape Variables on Fire-Spread in Grasslands , 1993 .

[12]  M. E. Alexander,et al.  Limitations on the accuracy of model predictions of wildland fire behaviour : A state-ofthe-knowledge overview by , 2013 .

[13]  Pf Ellis The aerodynamic and combustion characteristics of eucalypt bark : a firebrand study , 2000 .

[14]  R. Weber,et al.  Modelling fire spread through fuel beds , 1991 .

[15]  Andrew L. Sullivan,et al.  Grassland fire management in future climate. , 2010 .

[16]  John R. Coleman,et al.  A real-time computer application for the prediction of fire spread across the Australian landscape , 1996, Simul..

[17]  P J Padley,et al.  Flames: Their Structure, Radiation and Temperature , 1971 .

[18]  Jean Baptiste Filippi,et al.  A physical model for wildland fires , 2009 .

[19]  Commonwealth Scientific,et al.  Bushfires in Australia , 1986 .

[20]  J. Sacadura Radiative heat transfer in fire safety science , 2005 .

[21]  Miguel G. Cruz,et al.  Modeling the Likelihood of Crown Fire Occurrence in Conifer Forest Stands , 2004, Forest Science.

[22]  M. Vasconcelos,et al.  Firemap - Simulation of fire growth with a geographic information system , 1992 .

[23]  M. E. Alexander,et al.  Development of a model system to predict wildfire behaviour in pine plantations , 2008 .

[24]  Judith Winterkamp,et al.  Studying wildfire behavior using FIRETEC , 2002 .

[25]  C. E. Van Wagner,et al.  Conditions for the start and spread of crown fire , 1977 .

[26]  G. M. Byram,et al.  A Drought Index for Forest Fire Control , 1968 .

[27]  K. Finkele,et al.  National gridded drought factors and comparison of two soil moisture deficit formulations used in prediction of Forest Fire Danger Index inAustralia , 2006 .

[28]  Ian Owens,et al.  A GIS-supported model for the simulation of the spatial structure of wildland fire, Cass Basin, New Zealand , 1999 .

[29]  G. Dueck,et al.  Untangling the Prometheus Nightmare , 2009 .

[30]  Neil Burrows Experimental development of a fire management model for Jarrah (Eucalyptus Marginata Donn ex Sm.) forest. , 2013 .

[31]  Miguel G. Cruz,et al.  Uncertainty associated with model predictions of surface and crown fire rates of spread , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[32]  Martin E. Alexander,et al.  Crown fire thresholds in exotic pine plantations of Australasia , 1998 .

[33]  M. Mcpherson,et al.  Introduction to fluid mechanics , 1997 .

[34]  Jb Marsden-Smedley,et al.  Fire modelling in Tasmanian buttongrass moorlands. III. Dead fuel moisture , 2001 .

[35]  A. Martín del Rey,et al.  Modelling forest fire spread using hexagonal cellular automata , 2007 .

[36]  G. Powers,et al.  A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3 , 2008 .

[37]  Stuart Matthews,et al.  Field Guide: Fire in Dry Eucalypt Forest: Fuel Assessment and Fire Behaviour Prediction in Dry Eucalypt Forest , 2008 .

[38]  Matthew P. Thompson Social, Institutional, and Psychological Factors Affecting Wildfire Incident Decision Making , 2014 .

[39]  A. Gill,et al.  Fire properties and burn patterns in heterogeneous landscapes. , 2002 .

[40]  Miguel G. Cruz,et al.  Predicting the ignition of crown fuels above a spreading surface fire. Part I: model idealization , 2006 .

[41]  N. Cheney,et al.  Prediction of Fire Spread in Grasslands , 1998 .

[42]  F. A. Williams,et al.  Urban and wildland fire phenomenology , 1982 .

[43]  Js Gould,et al.  Development of Fire Behaviour Models for High-intensity Forest Fires , 1996 .

[44]  Deryn Griffiths Improved Formula for the Drought Factor in McArthur's Forest Fire Danger Meter , 1999 .

[45]  Rodman R. Linn,et al.  Coupled Atmospheric Fire Modeling Employing the Method of Averages , 2000 .

[46]  F. Albini,et al.  Modeling Ignition and Burning Rate of Large Woody Natural Fuels , 1995 .

[47]  P. Andrews Current status and future needs of the BehavePlus Fire Modeling System , 2014 .

[48]  G. Milne,et al.  Efficient simulation of wildfire spread on an irregular grid , 2008 .

[49]  Miguel G. Cruz,et al.  Evaluating a model for predicting active crown fire rate of spread using wildfire observations , 2006 .

[50]  A. Sullivan,et al.  Thermal decomposition and combustion chemistry of cellulosic biomass , 2012 .

[51]  Kevin G. Tolhurst,et al.  Phoenix: Development and Application of a Bushfire Risk Management Tool , 2008 .

[52]  Jonathan D. Beezley,et al.  Real time simulation of 2007 Santa Ana fires , 2012, 1202.3209.

[53]  S. W. Taylor,et al.  Science, technology, and human factors in fire danger rating: the Canadian experience , 2006 .

[54]  Y. Wu,et al.  Interaction of fire plume with inclined surface , 2000 .

[55]  F. Albini,et al.  Predicting fire behavior in palmetto-gallberry fuel complexes , 1978 .

[56]  Samuel L. Manzello,et al.  Numerical modeling of fire spread through trees and shrubs , 2006 .

[57]  J. Mandel,et al.  Evaluation of WRF-SFIRE performance with field observations from the FireFlux experiment , 2013 .

[58]  Ian R. Noble,et al.  McArthur's fire-danger meters expressed as equations , 1980 .

[59]  Ian Abbott,et al.  Development of a scientific understanding of fire behaviour and use in south-west Western Australia. , 2003 .

[60]  W. Anderson,et al.  Laboratory determination of factors influencing successful point ignition in the litter layer of shrubland vegetation , 2008 .

[61]  David G. Green,et al.  Interactive simulation of bushfires in heterogeneous fuels , 1990 .

[62]  J. Mandel,et al.  Coupled atmosphere-wildland fire modeling with WRF 3.3 and SFIRE 2011 , 2011, 1102.1343.

[63]  G. Richards,et al.  A Computer Algorithm for Simulating the Spread of Wildland Fire Perimeters for Heterogeneous Fuel and Meteorological Conditions , 1995 .

[64]  A. Sullivan,et al.  Project Vesta: Fire in Dry Eucalypt Forest: Fuel Structure, Fuel Dynamics and Fire Behaviour , 2008 .

[65]  Miguel G. Cruz,et al.  Development and testing of models for predicting crown fire rate of spread in conifer forest stands , 2005 .

[66]  Judith Winterkamp,et al.  Numerical Simulations of Two Wildfire Events Using a Combined Modeling System (HIGRAD/BEHAVE) , 1997 .

[67]  P. Fernandes,et al.  Fire behaviour and severity in a maritime pine stand under differing fuel conditions , 2004 .

[68]  Jutta Thielen,et al.  Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting , 2007 .

[69]  Peter G. Taylor,et al.  Procrustes based metrics for spatial validation and calibration of two-dimensional perimeter spread models: A case study considering fire , 2012 .

[70]  John R. Coleman,et al.  A Fire Perimeter Expansion Algorithm-Based on Huygens Wavelet Propagation , 1993 .

[71]  Rocco Rongo,et al.  A New Algorithm for Simulating Wildfire Spread through Cellular Automata , 2011, TOMC.

[72]  W.R. Anderson,et al.  Fire behaviour modelling in semi-arid mallee-heath shrublands of southern Australia , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[73]  Tonja S. Opperman,et al.  Applying fire spread simulators in New Zealand and Australia: Results from an international seminar , 2006 .

[74]  Janice L. Coen,et al.  Simulation of the Big Elk Fire using coupled atmosphere–fire modeling , 2005 .

[75]  Stuart Matthews,et al.  A comparison of fire danger rating systems for use in forests , 2009 .

[76]  W. J. B. Crane,et al.  Computing grassland and forest fire behaviour, relative humidity and drought index by pocket calculator , 1982 .

[77]  E. Pastor,et al.  Mathematical models and calculation systems for the study of wildland fire behaviour , 2003 .

[78]  R. Weber,et al.  Analytical models for fire spread due to radiation , 1989 .

[79]  P. Fernandes,et al.  Modelling fine fuel moisture content and the likelihood of fire spread in blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus) litter , 2014 .

[80]  D. Drysdale An Introduction to Fire Dynamics , 2011 .

[81]  Daniela Fischer Winning Decisions Getting It Right The First Time , 2016 .

[82]  Miguel G. Cruz,et al.  NATIONAL FIRE BEHAVIOUR PREDICTION SYSTEM , 2009 .

[83]  Miguel G. Cruz,et al.  Predicting the ignition of crown fuels above a spreading surface fire . Part II : model evaluation , 2006 .

[84]  Cláudio T. Silva,et al.  A wildland fire modeling and visualization environment , 2011, ArXiv.

[85]  P2.2 NON-LOCAL CHEMISTRY IMPLEMENTATION IN HIGRAD/FIRETEC , 2003 .

[86]  Pf Ellis Firebrand characteristics of the stringy bark of messmate (Eucalyptus obliqua) investigated using non-tethered samples , 2013 .

[87]  J. Filippi,et al.  Representation and evaluation of wildfire propagation simulations , 2014 .

[88]  M. E. Alexander,et al.  A mathematical model for predicting the maximum potential spotting distance from a crown fire , 2012 .

[89]  New numerical approaches for coupled atmosphere-fire models , 2000 .

[90]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[91]  Jonah J. Colman,et al.  Separating Combustion From Pyrolysis in HIGRAD/FIRETEC , 2005 .

[92]  Coupled atmosphere-fire dynamics , 1999 .

[93]  Jb Marsden-Smedley,et al.  Fire Behaviour Modelling in Tasmanian Buttongrass Moorlands .II. Fire Behaviour , 1995 .

[94]  G. B. Peet The Shape of Mild Fires in Jarrah Forest , 1967 .

[95]  Andrew L. Sullivan,et al.  A review of radiant heat flux models used in bushfire applications , 2003 .

[96]  Jonathan D. Beezley,et al.  Assimilation of Perimeter Data and Coupling with Fuel Moisture in a Wildland Fire-Atmosphere DDDAS , 2012, ICCS.

[97]  Martin E. Alexander,et al.  Fire on Earth: An Introduction , 2014 .

[98]  J. Sethian Evolution, implementation, and application of level set and fast marching methods for advancing fronts , 2001 .

[99]  W. Mell,et al.  A physics-based approach to modelling grassland fires , 2007 .

[100]  J. Gould Evaluation of McArthur's control burning guide in regrowth Eucalyptus sieberi forest , 1994 .

[101]  D. H. Anderson,et al.  Graphical simulation of bushfire spread , 1990 .

[102]  David G. Green,et al.  Fire shapes and the adequacy of fire-spread models , 1983 .

[103]  J. Turner,et al.  Buoyancy Effects in Fluids , 1973 .

[104]  Miguel G. Cruz,et al.  Are the applications of wildland fire behaviour models getting ahead of their evaluation again? , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[105]  James S. Gould,et al.  Changes in behaviour of fire in dry eucalypt forest as fuel increases with age , 2012 .

[106]  M. Finney FARSITE : Fire Area Simulator : model development and evaluation , 1998 .

[107]  H. Baum,et al.  The Equations of Motion for Thermally Driven, Buoyant Flows. , 1978, Journal of research of the National Bureau of Standards.

[108]  Janice L. Coen Coupled atmosphere-fire model dynamics of a fireline crossing a hill , 2000 .

[109]  Andrew J. Bannister,et al.  Anatomy of a catastrophic wildfire: The Black Saturday Kilmore East fire in Victoria, Australia , 2012 .

[110]  G. Achtemeier Field validation of a free-agent cellular automata model of fire spread with fire–atmosphere coupling , 2013 .

[111]  Jonathan D. Beezley,et al.  ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTERS IN COUPLED ATMOSPHERE-SURFACE MODELS , 2009 .

[112]  N. Burrows,et al.  Fire behaviour in spinifex fuels on the Gibson Desert Nature Reserve, Western Australia , 1991 .

[113]  E. A. Catchpole,et al.  Modelling the spread of grass fires , 1982, The Journal of the Australian Mathematical Society. Series B. Applied Mathematics.

[114]  Kevin G. Tolhurst,et al.  Wildfire risk management model for strategic management , 2006 .

[115]  Andrew L. Sullivan,et al.  Grassfires: Fuel, Weather and Fire Behaviour , 2009 .

[116]  A. Sullivan A review of wildland fire spread modelling, 1990-present, 1: Physical and quasi-physical models , 2007, 0706.3074.

[117]  Domingos Xavier Viegas,et al.  Combustibility of a mixture of live and dead fuel components , 2013 .

[118]  J. S. Gould,et al.  Predicting fire behaviour in dry eucalypt forest in southern Australia , 2012 .

[119]  Alen Slijepcevic,et al.  Fire behaviour analyst roles and responsibilities in bushfire management - how to make the best use of these skills , 2008 .

[120]  H. W. Emmons,et al.  Fundamental problems of the free burning fire , 1965 .

[121]  F. E. Fendell,et al.  Wind-Aided Fire Spread , 2001 .

[122]  G. Richards An elliptical growth model of forest fire fronts and its numerical solution , 1990 .

[123]  F. H. Harlow,et al.  Use of transport models for wildfire behavior simulations , 1998 .

[124]  L. Pugnet,et al.  Wildland-urban interface (WUI) fire modelling using PHOENIX Rapidfire: A case study in Cavaillon, France , 2013 .

[125]  T. Clark,et al.  Description of a coupled atmosphere–fire model , 2004 .

[126]  Martin E. Alexander,et al.  Forecasting wildland fire behavior: aids, guides, and knowledge-based protocols , 2004 .

[127]  J. Sethian,et al.  LEVEL SET METHODS FOR FLUID INTERFACES , 2003 .

[128]  Paulo M. Fernandes,et al.  Development of fuel models for fire behaviour prediction in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands , 2008 .

[129]  Christina Sirakoff A correction to the equations describing the McArthur forest fire danger meter , 1985 .

[130]  Jean-Baptiste Filippi,et al.  Discrete Event Front-tracking Simulation of a Physical Fire-spread Model , 2010, Simul..

[131]  Stuart Matthews,et al.  Simple models for predicting dead fuel moisture in eucalyptus forests , 2010 .

[132]  Jimy Dudhia,et al.  Development of a next-generation regional weather research and forecast model. , 2001 .

[133]  Kevin G. Tolhurst,et al.  Quantifying spatio-temporal differences between fire shapes: Estimating fire travel paths for the improvement of dynamic spread models , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[134]  J. E. Russo,et al.  Decision traps : ten barriers to brilliant decision-making and how to overcome them , 1989 .

[135]  F. Albini Estimating Wildfire Behavior and Effects , 1976 .

[136]  N. Burrows,et al.  Fuel Dynamics and Fire Spread in Spinifex Grasslands of the Western Desert , 2009, The Proceedings of the Royal Society of Queensland.

[137]  W. R. Catchpole,et al.  Buttongrass Moorland Fire-Behaviour Prediction and Management , 1999 .

[138]  Jb Marsden-Smedley,et al.  Fire Behaviour Modelling in Tasmanian Buttongrass Moorlands I. Fuel Characteristics , 1995 .

[139]  N. Cheney,et al.  Predicting Fire Behaviour with Fire Danger Tables , 1968 .

[140]  Js Gould,et al.  Existing fire behaviour models under-predict the rate of spread of summer fires in open jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest , 2008 .

[141]  Judith Winterkamp,et al.  Modeling interactions between fire and atmosphere in discrete element fuel beds , 2005 .

[142]  Dominique Morvan,et al.  Modeling the propagation of a wildfire through a Mediterranean shrub using a multiphase formulation , 2004 .

[143]  Jason J. Sharples,et al.  Review of formal methodologies for wind–slope correction of wildfire rate of spread , 2008 .

[144]  Pf Ellis,et al.  Fuelbed ignition potential and bark morphology explain the notoriety of the eucalypt messmate 'stringybark' for intense spotting , 2011 .

[145]  Neville de Mestre,et al.  Physical models for a spreading line fire , 1986 .