Analysis of electric power system reliability. [Cost/benefit approach]

A standard method is suggested for assessing the reliability of electric power systems, for use by the California Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission (ERCDC). The factors that influence power-system reliability are discussed. Different indices used to characterize reliability are described, and some alternative calculation approaches are given. A recommended calculation approach is outlined, and reasons for its adoption are given. In addition to calculating reliability, the issue of setting standards or minimum criteria for power-system reliability is addressed. While recognizing that economics alone cannot be used to set the level of reliability, a benefit/cost approach to the economic issues is proposed. This concentrates on estimating the cost of power outages to the customer. Besides adding generation capacity, there may be other approaches to meeting reliability requirements, such as strengthening the transmission or distribution systems, increasing interconnections, and instituting load management. The proposed methodology allows the costs and benefits of some of these other alternatives to be estimated. Finally, the report outlines a suggested approach for the ERCDC to develop and implement the common reliability calculation techniques.