Research on load forecasting based on the multi-level simultaneity technique

The conventional load density method that forecasts future demand divides the whole service area into a set of small areas, forecasting the load with single load simultaneity. Based on this load, the localities and capacities of substation equipments are planned. However, the result is that the capacities of low voltage (10 kV) substation are lower than the actual need, and the capacities of high voltage (220 kV) substations higher. To solve the problem, the concept of multi-level simultaneity and its forecasting models are introduced, and then a multi-level load system is constructed. The practical sample shows that the proposed method effectively solves the problems described above, and the matching between substation capacity and actual power needs in their respective localities is more rational.

[1]  E. Hobson,et al.  Urban underground network expansion planning , 1997 .

[2]  Wang Jia-yao.  Load Spatial Distribution Forecasting Model on Cellular Automata Theory , 2007 .

[3]  Chan-Nan Lu,et al.  A spatial modeling technique for small area load forecast , 2001, 2001 Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting. Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.01CH37262).

[4]  Gao Xin,et al.  A New Spatial Forecasting Method for Distribution Network Based on Cloud Theory , 2006 .

[5]  J.E.D. Northcote-Green,et al.  Spatial electric load forecasting: A tutorial review , 1983, Proceedings of the IEEE.

[6]  P. Wilson,et al.  An automated method for least cost distribution planning , 1989, Conference Papers Power Industry Computer Application Conference.

[7]  R. E. Brown,et al.  Long range spatial load forecasting using non-uniform areas , 1999, 1999 IEEE Transmission and Distribution Conference (Cat. No. 99CH36333).

[8]  G. Kim,et al.  Spatial load forecasting model for electrical distribution planning , 2004, Proceedings. The 8th Russian-Korean International Symposium on Science and Technology, 2004. KORUS 2004..

[9]  H. L. Willis,et al.  Spatial load forecasting , 1995 .

[10]  S.H. Hosseini,et al.  A new approach for substation expansion planning , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.