The PROSE [protection system evaluator] model

The PROSE model is a combined GASP IV computer simulation to aid in the evaluation of protection systems. The primary systems that the PROSE model was designed for is the safeguarding of special nuclear fuel in transit or at a fixed site. The method used in designing the PROSE study model was to simulate a small arms combat between a guard force and attacking adversaries. Discrete events include player and vehicle movement, engagement between two players, portal construction and penetration, player captures, and sensor detections. Observation between players and other plays and vehicles are represented with continuous state equations. In this decision, each player has a state variable representing the probability of detecting another entity. This probability is cumulated over time until a threshold is crossed. This state event then indicates that a detection has occurred, and the observing player has his perception updated which contains copies of the attributes values of the observed entity. Also, the perceived information is available to be communicated to other communication net members. Individual and leader decisions are also simulated in the PROSE model. Individual decisions are based on the attribute values of perceived entities (including oneself). Existing situations are identified and responses are selected. For example, a situation might occur when the special nuclear material has been stolen, and the guard response might be to block the exist route of the adversaries. This type of decision making represents immediate responses, or standard operation procedures of the guards. Leader planning or decision making is simulated by a different means. The leader of each force (guards and adversary) has the responsibility of organizing each subordinate's plans. The guard leaders perception is searched to determine if any adversaries are perceived to occupy “key” or vital locations. If so, then a response is selected. The responses might appear as movements of guard to “strategic” location in response to the occupancy of the “key” location. Adversary planning is somewhat different in that “goals” provide guidance for decision making. An adversary goal might be to secure the nuclear material room with these persons. If the adversary leader perceived that only two subordinates were in the process of achieving this goal, another subordinates (if possible) would be given the plan to move to the nuclear material room. Statistics collection is an important part of the PROSE model design. Since this model was designed to an aid in evaluation of protection systems, several types of statistics are made available to provide measures of the protection systems strengths and weaknesses. Some of these include firing accuracy, region occupancy, amount of information communicated, number of sensor detections, and whether or not plans were carried out properly.