Temporal-spatial variations and influencing factors of Lakes in inland arid areas from 2000 to 2017: a case study in Xinjiang

Abstract Lakes are the most important water resource in arid and semi-arid regions and are good indicators of climate change. The study of lake expansion and contraction can reveal important information about climate change and regional responses. In this study, MOD09A1 global surface reflectance data of MODIS are used to extract the water areas of 12 main lakes in Xinjiang using a support vector machine method to investigate the temporal-spatial dynamics and driving factors of lake area variations between 2000 and 2017. The results indicate that (1) In general, the Xinjiang lakes exhibited large fluctuations between 2000 and 2017; the area of the lakes shrunk by 16.98 km2/year during 2007–2009 but expanded by 80.67 km2/year after 2010. (2) The changes in the Xinjiang lakes exhibited obvious spatial differences. There were strong fluctuations in the areas of the Tail-end lakes and the K value describing the degree of fluctuation in the lake area was 0.2%. The fluctuations in the areas of the Mountain lakes were more stable with a K value of 0.09% and the area of the Plateau lakes increased every year, with an annual increase of 19.90 km2. (3) The lakes with the larger fluctuations in the area were Ebinur Lake, Manasi Lake, and Barkol Lake, and the range of the areas was 370.85, 276.55, and 61.5 km2, respectively. Because of the regional diversity of Xinjiang, the driving forces that affect the area of the lakes differ in different areas. The main factors affecting the lake area change in the Tail-end lakes are the amount of inflowing water and the water use by agriculture and animal husbandry. The main reason for the stability of the Mountain lakes is the balance between water inflow and outflow. The main factor contributing to the expansion of the Plateau lakes area is the abundant supply of glacier/snow melt water. Overall, the main factor contributing to the expansion of Plateau lakes area is abundant glacier snow melt water supply. On the whole, the main factors affecting the temporal and spatial variation of the lake areas in Xinjiang are precipitation (r = .67, p = .003 < .01), temperature (r = .611, p = .007 < .01), and the increase in cultivated land area (r = −.021, p = .004 < .01).

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