A Methodological Framework to Estimate GHG from Travel Pattern of Tyne & Wear of Newcastle, UK with Various Policy Options Using Fuzzy Logic Modal Split Model

An attempt has been made to study the existing travel pattern of NewcastleCity with a small of data set, UK. This would form a basis of appreciating the travel pattern with respect to mode of transport used, purpose, cost, frequency and length of travel according the different categories of socio-economic groups. In this paper, the existing travel pattern by the various socio-economiccategories of people were appreciated clearly in quantitative terms with the examination of the various transport related policy and strategy options to ascertain the degree of public transport to be developed for creating a conducive environment of better public transport travel condition by developing Modal Split model using Fuzzy Logic. The primary aim of the study was to explore ways and means with the help of transport policy options to quantify and reduce the green housegas emitted from the transport sector with the change modal split in favor of public transport. In order to demonstrate how to estimate the above gas from the travel pattern of Newcastle city, a small sample data of 248 commuters were collected in the year 2005 mostly traveling by car and public transport using bus and metro. Further an attempt has been made to study the travel characteristics for two types road users traveling by car and public transport. The approach demonstrated here would provide a basis for estimation of green house from the data collected from the transportation study conducted in 2005, 2011 and 2021. I. Background Climate change resulting from the growing carbon foot print in the world is one of the burning issues threatening the survival of mankind. Transport sector is also responsible for generation of significant amount of green house gas of the order of 22 percent per annum (1) as compared to the other man made activities in the world. Apart from the emission of green house gas, there are a number of other air pollutants emitted from transport sector, also causing a great deal of problems to human health. The SECURE (Self Energy Conserving Urban Environment) project through the approach of 4 M dealing with “ Measurement, Modelling, Mapping and Management of air pollution data with a primary focus on estimation of carbon footprint, undertaken by the UK partners comprising of five academic universities has initiated to examine various issues of the emission of green house gas caused due to the large scale generation of human made activities in UK. The SECURE (2) project addresses the grand challenge of integrating greater conservation and more efficient resource utilisation across scales to meet future urban demands It is increasingly felt that personalized mode of motorized vehicles is the cause of major pollutant, responsible to account for significant amount of not only in terms of the emission of green house gas but also responsible for generating other air pollutants, a serious concern for human health. It has led us to believe that the greater use of public transport can help bring down the green house gas. Therefore it is extremely important to assess the role of transport sector in relation to the generation of green house gas. In this context, an attempt has been made to study the existing travel pattern of Newcastle City with a small of data set, UK. Further analysis with a large set of data of 60,000 records of household would attempt to ascertain the characteristics of various parameters of travel of various socio-economic categories of people. This would form a basis of appreciating the travel pattern with respect to mode of transport used, purpose, cost, frequency and length of travel according the different categories of socio-economic groups. Once the existing travel pattern by the various socio-economic categories of people are understood clearly in quantitative terms, then one can examine the various transport related policy and strategy options to ascertain the degree of public transport to be developed for creating a conducive environment of better public transport travel condition. Therefore a study of mode choice modeling would be an appropriate option in context of SECURE project. Finally one can quantify the magnitude of carbon emission with the detailed understanding of mode choice behavior of different categories of socio-economic groups of people not only for the present situation of travel characteristics but also help understand the quantum of generation of green house gas to be generated under different policy and strategy options in future. A Methodological Framework to Estimate GHG from... www.ijesi.org 2 | Page In the light of the above, it is therefore necessary to systematically understand the stages of work associated in carrying out the above work. Presently, the data on travel and socio-economic are made available to a limited scale for the year 2005 for the city of Newcastle (3) . As described, the primary aim of the study would be to explore ways and means with the help of transport policy options to quantify and reduce the green house gas emitted from the transport sector with the change modal split in favor of public transport. In order to demonstrate how to estimate the above gas from the travel pattern of Newcastle city, a small sample data of 248 commuters were collected in the year 2005 mostly traveling by car and public transport using bus and metro. Further an attempt has been made to study the travel characteristics for two types road users traveling by car and public transport. The approach demonstrated here would provide a basis for estimation of green house from the data collected from the transportation study conducted in 2005, 2009 and 2010. 1 Study Area Profile 1.1 Socio-Economic Tyne and Wear of Newcastle located in the north east of England with an area of 55,000 hector (4) comprises of New castle Upon Tyne, Sunderland, Gateshead, North Tyne side and South Tyne Side. As per census of 2001, it has registered more than 1.6 million population surrounded by Northumberland and Durham and is forecast for further growth of 6 percent in the nest 25 years. This area has grown strongly from a strong economic base on coal mining and ship building. This area is bestowed upon 40 percent of green space – an important indicator for ecological balance. 1.2 Transport System Over a period of time, Tyne and Wear of Newcastle has emerged to have developed a balanced transport system emphasizing with both road network system and public transport system equally supported with strong metro and public transport operation covering almost all the areas of Tyne and Wear.. Metro as shown in Fig 1 has grown considerably to a height by carrying as many as 40 million passengers since 2006. Fig1 Map showing the Metro Network in Newcastle Upon Tyne (5) 1.3 Travel Pattern Due to good road network and likely increase in car ownership from 57 percent in 2006 to 73 percent reported to reach in 2031, the car trips are expected to grow to 20 percent in 2031 resulting in the overall increase of 6.1 percent of person trips on the road network. The average trip length of car and public transport in Tyne and Wear would increase to 11.6 percent and 5.9 percent respectively. 2 Methodology In order to accomplish the objectives, it is essential to develop a sound methodology, which can be the basis for the estimation of green house gas in particular. Presently, the data on travel and socio-economic are made available for the past year 2005, 2009 and 2010 for the Tyne and Wear of Newcastle. As described earlier, the primary aim of the study would be to explore ways and means with the help of transport policy options to quantify GHG with view to determining the extent of reduction of greenhouse gas to be emitted from the transport sector due to change the change of modal split in favor of public transport. Keeping this in view, an attempt is made to present a methodological framework for various stages of work as presented below. A Methodological Framework to Estimate GHG from... www.ijesi.org 3 | Page 2.1 Stage I: Appreciation of Data Input  Scrutiny of Tyne and Wear of Newcastle’s socio-economic and travel data pertaining to around 60,000 data records collected for a period of number of years.  Formatting and arrangement of the required data set for analysis  Identification of parameter of data to be used for analysis. 2.2 Stage II: Preparation of Data Set according the Various Categories of Socio-Economic Groups  The following Categories Data are identified. Four categories of classifications for category analysis for studying the travel behavior of various categories of people are considered for the study. These are namely: 1) Status: employed, student, unemployed 2) Car ownership: without any car, with one car, with two or more car 3) gender: male or female 4)Age group: 5-24year , 25-45 year , 46-60 year , above 60 year Therefore there will be around 72 categories of households to be dealt with for more than 15, 000 household data to be analyzed from the year 2005 to 2010 . The data for each year is required to be prepared for comparative analysis so to examine any change of travel behavior of people over a period of time. Once the above inputs are prepared into data base with respect to specific year, then categories will be prepared using the filtering process. 2.3 Stage III: An Analysis of Travel Behavior of Various Categories of Household Travel Data In the first instance, an attempt will be made to analyze the travel characteristics of different categories of people as outlined above. These include the following such as i) analyses of trip rate of different categories of people with respect to total trip generation rate, ii) trip generation rate according to modes of travel, iii) trip length by mode and purpose, iv)measure of utility for different modes of travel by various categories of people etc. Each category of data set is to be analyzed with respect to different years to appreciate any change of travel be