Research on Selection of Water Consumption Forecast Model

The time series method is one of common methods for forecasting water consumption.The prediction accuracy on water consumption can be guaranteed by the selection of forecast models.View of the current selection of forecasting models in order to minimize the fitting error,a method of selecting forecast model was put forward based on minimum error of forecast.Taking the industrial water consumption data of Yuncheng city for example,the prediction interval of forecast period of 5 and 10 years were given in the 95% confidence level for six models such as power function,S function,linear,exponential functions,quadratic and cubic parabola.The results show that power function has the highest prediction accuracy.The series amount of water data in the nearly 5 years was predicted.Power function has the minimum prediction error.The results show that the method of choosing models according to the minimize prediction range is reasonable and reliable.