Has there been a hiatus?

Internal climate variability masks climate-warming trends Every decade since the 1960s has been warmer than the one before, with 2000 to 2009 by far the warmest decade on record (see the figure). However, the role of human-induced climate change has been discounted by some, owing to a markedly reduced increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) from 1998 through 2013, known as the hiatus (1–3). The upward trend has resumed in 2014, now the warmest year on record, with 2015 temperatures on course for another record-hot year. Although Earth's climate is undoubtedly warming, weather-related and internal natural climate variability can temporarily overwhelm global warming in any given year or even decade, especially locally.

[1]  Thomas C. Peterson,et al.  Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus , 2015, Science.

[2]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  An apparent hiatus in global warming? , 2013 .

[3]  Dara Entekhabi,et al.  Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather , 2014 .

[4]  P. DiNezio,et al.  The Tropical Pacific Ocean—Back in the Driver's Seat? , 2014, Science.

[5]  Adam S. Phillips,et al.  Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming , 2014 .

[6]  K. Tung,et al.  Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration , 2014, Science.

[7]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Earth’s Energy Imbalance , 2014 .

[8]  H. Bryden,et al.  Observing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation yields a decade of inevitable surprises , 2015, Science.

[9]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[10]  M. Mann,et al.  Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures , 2015, Science.

[11]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content , 2013 .

[12]  Agus Santoso,et al.  Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus , 2014 .

[13]  J. Willis,et al.  Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating , 2015, Science.

[14]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming , 2014 .

[15]  Carl A. Mears,et al.  Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature , 2014 .

[16]  Yu Kosaka,et al.  Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling , 2013, Nature.

[17]  D. Hartmann.  Pacific sea surface temperature and the winter of 2014 , 2015 .

[18]  G. Meehl,et al.  Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation , 2013 .