ALCOHOL AVAILABILITY AND VIOLENT CRIME RATES: A SPATIAL ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT This paper focuses on the relationship between alcohol availability in urban areas (block groups) and arrest rates for violent crime. The research examines the influence alcohol outlet density (measured both as the density of package-only sources and of taverns) has on the level of robbery and assault. Previous research has found alcohol availability to be predictive of violence, but ecological studies have had methodological limitations, particularly the problem of spatial autocorrelation. We avoid this problem by utilizing the Maximum Likelihood Estimation technique. The results indicate, net of the effects of control variables and of the effects of spatial autocorrelation, that the density of package-only outlets significantly increases the rate of arrest for both crimes. However, the density of taverns has no such effect. A control/routine-activities interpretation of the findings is offered.

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