A Framework of Factors Influencing ANSA Decision Making (Structure des Facteurs Agissant sur le Processus Decisionel des Acteurs Armes non Etatiques)

Abstract : As Armed Non-State Actors (ANSAs) become increasingly involved in both perpetuating and resolving persistent social conflict, understanding the strategic decision making of these groups is critical. To address this issue, we conducted an extensive literature review focused on determining what is known regarding judgment and decision making approaches considered in the context of team, small group, and organizational settings. Our review resulted in the development of a guiding framework that draws upon group decision making literature, as well as specific facets of ANSA and terrorist decision making literature to identify the key antecedents to ANSA decision making, as well as the factors that may moderate the processes in which decisions are made. Specifically, such factors were categorized as group/organizational factors, individual factors, or contextual factors in the context of our framework, and their influence on group sensemaking, and in turn, decision making, were explored. These three broad categories encompass a range of factors that can influence ANSA decision making, providing a streamlined lens through which we can begin to understand it and make valuable predictions. Our framework thus sets the stage for future research as well as the development of training interventions designed to understand and influence ANSA decision making.