PROBABILITY‐BASED INFERENCE IN COGNITIVE DIAGNOSIS

Abstract : Recent developments in cognitive psychology suggest models for knowledge and learning that often fall outside the realm of standard test theory. This paper concerns probability-based inference in terms of such models. An approach utilizing Bayesian inference networks is outlined. Basic ideas of structure and computation in inference networks are discussed, and illustrated with an example from the domain of mixed-number subtraction. Bayesian inference, Belief nets, Cognitive diagnosis, Psychology, Educational measurement, Inference networks

[1]  Robert E. Tarjan,et al.  Simple Linear-Time Algorithms to Test Chordality of Graphs, Test Acyclicity of Hypergraphs, and Selectively Reduce Acyclic Hypergraphs , 1984, SIAM J. Comput..

[2]  R. Siegler Developmental Sequences within and between Concepts. , 1981 .

[3]  Marvin Minsky,et al.  A framework for representing knowledge , 1974 .

[4]  Kikumi K. Tatsuoka Validation of Cognitive Sensitivity for Item Response Curves , 1987 .

[5]  K. Tatsuoka RULE SPACE: AN APPROACH FOR DEALING WITH MISCONCEPTIONS BASED ON ITEM RESPONSE THEORY , 1983 .

[6]  David J. Spiegelhalter,et al.  Probabilistic Reasoning in Predictive Expert Systems , 1985, UAI.

[7]  Steen Andreassen,et al.  MUNIN - A Causal Probabilistic Network for Interpretation of Electromyographic Findings , 1987, IJCAI.

[8]  L. McDermott Research on conceptual understanding in mechanics , 1984 .

[9]  Patrick C. Kyllonen,et al.  Effects of Aptitudes, Strategy Training, and Task Facets on Spatial Task Performance. , 1984 .

[10]  C. Spearman,et al.  Demonstration of Formulae for True Measurement of Correlation , 1907 .

[11]  Kristian G. Olesen,et al.  HUGIN - A Shell for Building Bayesian Belief Universes for Expert Systems , 1989, IJCAI.

[12]  R. Snow,et al.  Implications of cognitive psychology for educational measurement. , 1989 .

[13]  Robert J. Mislevy,et al.  PROBABILITY-BASED INFERENCE IN A DOMAIN OF PROPORTIONAL REASONING TASKS , 1992 .

[14]  Keam-Claude Falmagne,et al.  A latent trait theory via a stochastic learning theory for a knowledge space , 1989 .

[15]  Karl G. Jöreskog,et al.  Lisrel 8: User's Reference Guide , 1997 .

[16]  David J. Spiegelhalter,et al.  Local computations with probabilities on graphical structures and their application to expert systems , 1990 .

[17]  K. VanLehn Mind Bugs: The Origins of Procedural Misconceptions , 1990 .

[18]  S. Wright The Method of Path Coefficients , 1934 .

[19]  Robert J. Mislevy,et al.  TOWARD A TEST THEORY FOR ASSESSING STUDENT UNDERSTANDING , 1991 .

[20]  Judea Pearl,et al.  A Computational Model for Causal and Diagnostic Reasoning in Inference Systems , 1983, IJCAI.

[21]  D. Rubin,et al.  Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM - algorithm plus discussions on the paper , 1977 .

[22]  K. Tatsuoka Toward an Integration of Item-Response Theory and Cognitive Error Diagnosis. , 1987 .

[23]  Patrick W Thompson,et al.  Were lions to speak, we wouldn’t understand , 1982 .

[24]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems - networks of plausible inference , 1991, Morgan Kaufmann series in representation and reasoning.

[25]  J. Clement Students’ preconceptions in introductory mechanics , 1982 .

[26]  Marvin Minsky,et al.  A framework for representing knowledge" in the psychology of computer vision , 1975 .

[27]  Henri Wallon,et al.  The Psychological Development of the Child , 1972 .

[28]  David A. Schum,et al.  Evidence and inference for the intelligence analyst , 1987 .

[29]  Edward H. Haertel Using restricted latent class models to map the skill structure of achievement items , 1989 .