Reliability of territory-wide car ownership estimates in Hong Kong

This paper presents an aggregate car ownership model for Hong Kong and examines the reliability of territory-wide car ownership estimates from the model. Car ownership is defined as the total number of licensed private cars and motorcycles (in terms of passenger car units). The probability distributions for the relative errors of actual and projected values of the key factors were utilized to explain the variation of the future values of these factors. A simulation model making use of the Monte-Carlo simulation technique was devised to incorporate uncertainty in the estimation of territory-wide car ownership in Hong Kong, in which the reliability of territory-wide car ownership estimates was obtained from the combined probability distribution of the key factors. The reliability analysis produces territory-wide car ownership estimates at a particular probability, or probabilities of reaching specific car ownership levels.

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