CRIME AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE IN POST-WAR BRITAIN

The idea that crime may be related to economic activity, and particularly unemployment, has caused considerable political controversy, As there is a great deal of disagreement amongst academic researchers about the influence which economic forces play in influencing the crime rate, it is hardly surprising that politicians and others can find apparently respectable support for their diametrically opposing views. This paper re-examines the association between crime and economic activity. In the first section we consider possible reasons why crime might be related to the state of the economy. The second section surveys the evidence linking crime to economic circumstances. Finally, in the third section we present some new results, obtained using both annual and quarterly time-series data for England and Wales, concerning the relationship between the business cycle and property crime, i.e. offences of burglary, robbery and theft and handling of stolen goods.

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