Pest and disease prediction models

Virtually all crops are susceptible to infection or infestation by pathogens and invertebrate pests whose life cycles are influenced by environmental conditions. Pest and disease forecasting models consist of mathematical relationships which describe the progress of pest or pathogen life cycles in terms of environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity. Forecasting models can be important components of integrated pest and disease management strategies where management practices need to be timed to coincide with key phases in the pest or pathogen life cycle. The models and their outputs are made available to farmers, growers, and advisors as software packages, through interactive websites and managed services, often accompanied by interpretation from an expert. The use of models can give benefits by reducing inputs, improving crop scheduling and quality, and reducing waste. Forecasting models can also be used to explore ‘what if’ scenarios such as the potential impact of climate change on crop pests and pathogens.