Risk calculation of storing water and generating electricity of Wan'an Reservoir operation

An optimal long-term operation model of Wan'an Reservoir is established and solved by applying DP algorithm.Next,based on these optimal results,these operation rules for generating electricity in every time interval are presented and analyzed.Then,two kinds of methods describing the stochastic character of reservoir inflow are discussed.One is that reservoir inflow is subject to Pearson III distribution without inflow forecast available.The other is that forecast error is subject to normal distribution with reservoir inflow information.Last,by stochastic simulation technique,the rate of risk that the reservoir water level at the end of the time interval is lower the target level is calculated.The rate of risk that the generating electricity in the time interval is lower the target level also is obtained.The case study shows that the combination of optimal operation model and stochastic simulation gives a new approach of risk analysis for reservoir operation.