Alarming predictions for obesity and non-communicable diseases in the Middle East

Abstract Objective The present study aimed to model obesity trends and future obesity-related disease for nine countries in the Middle East; in addition, to explore how hypothetical reductions in population obesity levels could ameliorate anticipated disease burdens. Design A regression analysis of cross-sectional data v. BMI showed age- and sex-specific BMI trends, which fed into a micro simulation with a million Monte Carlo trials for each country. We also examined two alternative scenarios where population BMI was reduced by 1 % and 5 %. Setting Statistical modelling of obesity trends was carried out in nine Middle East countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Turkey). Subjects BMI data along with disease incidence, mortality and survival data from national and sub-national data sets were used for the modelling process. Results High rates of overweight and obesity increased in both men and women in most countries. The burden of incident type 2 diabetes, CHD and stroke would be moderated with even small reductions in obesity levels. Conclusions Obesity is a growing problem in the Middle East which requires government action on the primary prevention of obesity. The present results are important for policy makers to know the effectiveness of obesity interventions on future disease burden.

[1]  B. Gersh.  National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants , 2012 .

[2]  M. Rafiei,et al.  Risk factors for coronary artery disease in Isfahan, Iran , 1999 .

[3]  E. C. Moura,et al.  Socioeconomic status and obesity in adult populations of developing countries: a review. , 2004, Bulletin of the World Health Organization.

[4]  A. Way,et al.  Egypt Demographic and Health Survey 2000. , 2009 .

[5]  J. Shaw,et al.  Global estimates of the prevalence of diabetes for 2010 and 2030. , 2010, Diabetes research and clinical practice.

[6]  A. Musaiger.  Overweight and Obesity in Eastern Mediterranean Region: Prevalence and Possible Causes , 2011, Journal of obesity.

[7]  Anwar Batieha,et al.  An increase in prevalence of diabetes mellitus in Jordan over 10 years. , 2008, Journal of diabetes and its complications.

[8]  C. Erem,et al.  Prevalence of obesity and associated risk factors in a Turkish population (trabzon city, Turkey). , 2004, Obesity research.

[9]  S. Friel,et al.  Interaction between Education and Household Wealth on the Risk of Obesity in Women in Egypt , 2012, PloS one.

[10]  A. Musaiger,et al.  Weight, height, body mass index and prevalence of obesity among the adult population in Bahrain , 2001, Annals of human biology.

[11]  S. Khalfan,et al.  NATIONAL NUTRITION SURVEY FOR ADULT BAHRAINIS AGED 19 YEARS AND ABOVE , 2002 .

[12]  A. Oguz,et al.  Obesity and abdominal obesity; an alarming challenge for cardio-metabolic risk in Turkish adults. , 2008, Anadolu kardiyoloji dergisi : AKD = the Anatolian journal of cardiology.

[13]  A. Rashidy-pour,et al.  Obesity in the Iranian population , 2009, Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity.

[14]  Y. Khader,et al.  Obesity in Jordan: prevalence, associated factors, comorbidities, and change in prevalence over ten years. , 2008, Metabolic syndrome and related disorders.

[15]  A. Sibai,et al.  Prevalence and covariates of obesity in Lebanon: findings from the first epidemiological study. , 2003, Obesity research.

[16]  K. McPherson,et al.  High Rates of Obesity and Non-Communicable Diseases Predicted across Latin America , 2012, PloS one.

[17]  Gretchen A. Stevens,et al.  National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants , 2011, The Lancet.

[18]  A. Parant.  [World population prospects]. , 1990, Futuribles.

[19]  A. Al-Isa.  Changes in body mass index (BMI) and prevalence of obesity among Kuwaitis 1980–1994 , 1997, International Journal of Obesity.

[20]  H. Al-Hazzaa,et al.  Prevalence of physical activity and inactivity among Saudis aged 30-70 years. A population-based cross-sectional study. , 2007, Saudi medical journal.

[21]  N. Turan,et al.  Prevalence of overweight and obesity in Turkey. , 2003, Metabolic syndrome and related disorders.

[22]  H. Benamer,et al.  Stroke in Arab countries: A systematic literature review , 2009, Journal of the Neurological Sciences.

[23]  K. Al‐Roomi,et al.  Obesity among adult Bahraini population: impact of physical activity and educational level. , 2001, Annals of Saudi medicine.

[24]  S. Yusuf,et al.  Obesity and the risk of myocardial infarction in 27 000 participants from 52 countries: a case-control study , 2005, The Lancet.

[25]  M. Khalil,et al.  Obesity in Saudi Arabia. , 2005, Saudi medical journal.

[26]  G. Can,et al.  Prevalence of diabetes, obesity and hypertension in a Turkish population (Trabzon city). , 2001, Diabetes research and clinical practice.

[27]  K. Hajian‐Tilaki,et al.  Prevalence of obesity, central obesity and the associated factors in urban population aged 20–70 years, in the north of Iran: a population‐based study and regression approach , 2007, Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity.

[28]  O. Galal.  The nutrition transition in Egypt: obesity, undernutrition and the food consumption context , 2002, Public Health Nutrition.

[29]  O. Obeid,et al.  The Paradox of Nutrition-Related Diseases in the Arab Countries: The Need for Action , 2011, International journal of environmental research and public health.

[30]  F. Azizi,et al.  Trends of obesity and abdominal obesity in Tehranian adults: a cohort study , 2009, BMC public health.

[31]  A. Asfaw.  Do government food price policies affect the prevalence of obesity? Empirical evidence from Egypt , 2007 .

[32]  S. Gortmaker,et al.  Health and economic burden of the projected obesity trends in the USA and the UK , 2011, The Lancet.

[33]  WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean , 1995 .

[34]  P. Jousilahti,et al.  Prevalence and 10-year secular trend of obesity in Oman. , 2004, Saudi medical journal.

[35]  N. Arslan,et al.  Obesity in adults in Turkey: age and regional effects. , 2008, European journal of public health.

[36]  K McPherson,et al.  Modelling obesity trends and related diseases in Eastern Europe , 2012, Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity.

[37]  K. Mohammad,et al.  An accelerated nutrition transition in Iran , 2002, Public Health Nutrition.

[38]  A. Batieha,et al.  Obesity in Jordan , 1998, International Journal of Obesity.

[39]  Martin McKee,et al.  Priority actions for the non-communicable disease crisis , 2011, The Lancet.

[40]  N. Turan,et al.  High prevalence of obesity and diabetes mellitus in Konya, a central Anatolian city in Turkey. , 2005, Diabetes research and clinical practice.

[41]  F. Azizi,et al.  Population-based incidence of Type 2 diabetes and its associated risk factors: results from a six-year cohort study in Iran , 2009, BMC public health.