Reliability Models of Ammunition Storage Based on MCMC Simulation Method

With the more and more development of the Bayesian survival analysis theory,as well as the fault of the traditional methods for storage reliability evaluation of ammunition,the Bayesian analysis method was proposed to build reliability regression models in the condition of the random truncated test.Take exponential distribution and Weibull distribution for example,and the MCMC method based on Gibbs sampling was put forward to simulate dynamically the Markov chain of the parameters' posterior distribution.Also,the parameters' Bayesian estimations were given out.The BUGS package was used to realize the simulation.The results prove the model to be objective and valid in the storage reliability evaluation of ammunition.