Causal Discovery from Heterogeneous/Nonstationary Data

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the `driving force' of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

[1]  Pengtao Xie,et al.  Specific and Shared Causal Relation Modeling and Mechanism-Based Clustering , 2019, NeurIPS.

[2]  Bernhard Schölkopf,et al.  Causal Discovery from Nonstationary/Heterogeneous Data: Skeleton Estimation and Orientation Determination , 2017, IJCAI.

[3]  Peter Spirtes,et al.  The three faces of faithfulness , 2015, Synthese.

[4]  Bernhard Schölkopf,et al.  Identification of Time-Dependent Causal Model: A Gaussian Process Treatment , 2015, IJCAI.

[5]  Jin Tian,et al.  Causal Discovery from Changes: a Bayesian Approach , 2001, UAI 2001.

[6]  R. Scheines,et al.  Interventions and Causal Inference , 2007, Philosophy of Science.

[7]  Bernhard Schölkopf,et al.  On Estimation of Functional Causal Models , 2015, ACM Trans. Intell. Syst. Technol..

[8]  Le Song,et al.  Time-Varying Dynamic Bayesian Networks , 2009, NIPS.

[9]  Clark Glymour,et al.  Causal Discovery from Non-Identical Variable Sets , 2020, AAAI 2020.

[10]  Bernhard Schölkopf,et al.  Nonlinear causal discovery with additive noise models , 2008, NIPS.

[11]  J. Pearl Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference , 2000 .

[12]  Le Song,et al.  A Kernel Statistical Test of Independence , 2007, NIPS.

[13]  Bernhard Schölkopf,et al.  Discovering Temporal Causal Relations from Subsampled Data , 2015, ICML.

[14]  N. Hengartner,et al.  Structural learning with time‐varying components: tracking the cross‐section of financial time series , 2005 .

[15]  David Maxwell Chickering,et al.  Optimal Structure Identification With Greedy Search , 2002, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[16]  Tom M. Mitchell,et al.  Training fMRI Classifiers to Detect Cognitive States across Multiple Human Subjects , 2003, NIPS 2003.

[17]  Aapo Hyvärinen,et al.  A Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Model for Causal Discovery , 2006, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[18]  Tom Burr,et al.  Causation, Prediction, and Search , 2003, Technometrics.

[19]  V. Calhoun,et al.  The Chronnectome: Time-Varying Connectivity Networks as the Next Frontier in fMRI Data Discovery , 2014, Neuron.

[20]  Clark Glymour,et al.  Causal Discovery from Heterogeneous/Nonstationary Data with Independent Changes. , 2019 .

[21]  Lai-Wan Chan,et al.  Extensions of ICA for Causality Discovery in the Hong Kong Stock Market , 2006, ICONIP.

[22]  Ryan P. Adams,et al.  Bayesian Online Changepoint Detection , 2007, 0710.3742.

[23]  Aapo Hyvärinen,et al.  Estimation of a Structural Vector Autoregression Model Using Non-Gaussianity , 2010, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[24]  Mokshay Madiman,et al.  On the entropy of sums , 2008, 2008 IEEE Information Theory Workshop.

[25]  David Danks,et al.  Tracking Time-varying Graphical Structure , 2013, NIPS.

[26]  Judea Pearl The Logic of Causal Inference , 2010 .

[27]  D. Heckerman,et al.  A Bayesian Approach to Causal Discovery , 2006 .

[28]  David Maxwell Chickering,et al.  Learning Bayesian Networks: The Combination of Knowledge and Statistical Data , 1994, Machine Learning.

[29]  Vince D. Calhoun,et al.  Dynamic modeling of neuronal responses in fMRI using cubature Kalman filtering , 2011, NeuroImage.

[30]  Thomas S. Richardson,et al.  A Discovery Algorithm for Directed Cyclic Graphs , 1996, UAI.

[31]  Alan M. Frieze,et al.  Random graphs , 2006, SODA '06.

[32]  D. Weed On the logic of causal inference. , 1986, American journal of epidemiology.

[33]  E. Xing,et al.  A state-space mixed membership blockmodel for dynamic network tomography , 2008, 0901.0135.

[34]  Bernhard Schölkopf,et al.  On causal and anticausal learning , 2012, ICML.

[35]  Jonas Peters,et al.  Causal inference by using invariant prediction: identification and confidence intervals , 2015, 1501.01332.

[36]  Bernhard Schölkopf,et al.  Kernel-based Conditional Independence Test and Application in Causal Discovery , 2011, UAI.

[37]  Aapo Hyvärinen,et al.  Nonlinear independent component analysis: Existence and uniqueness results , 1999, Neural Networks.

[38]  Aapo Hyvärinen,et al.  On the Identifiability of the Post-Nonlinear Causal Model , 2009, UAI.

[39]  Kun Zhang,et al.  Multi-domain Causal Structure Learning in Linear Systems , 2018, NeurIPS.

[40]  Zhi Geng,et al.  Causal Network Learning from Multiple Interventions of Unknown Manipulated Targets , 2016, ArXiv.

[41]  Bernhard Schölkopf,et al.  Domain Adaptation under Target and Conditional Shift , 2013, ICML.

[42]  Dacheng Tao,et al.  Causal Generative Domain Adaptation Networks , 2018, ArXiv.

[43]  Bernhard Schölkopf,et al.  Generalized Score Functions for Causal Discovery , 2018, KDD.

[44]  Bernhard Schölkopf,et al.  Nonlinear Component Analysis as a Kernel Eigenvalue Problem , 1998, Neural Computation.

[45]  Kun Zhang,et al.  Causal Discovery and Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments with State-Space Models , 2019, ICML.

[46]  Bernhard Schölkopf,et al.  Behind Distribution Shift: Mining Driving Forces of Changes and Causal Arrows , 2017, 2017 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM).

[47]  Christopher Meek,et al.  Strong completeness and faithfulness in Bayesian networks , 1995, UAI.

[48]  Kun Zhang,et al.  Discovery and Visualization of Nonstationary Causal Models , 2015, 1509.08056.