Mixed logit analysis of safety-belt use in single- and multi-occupant vehicles.

In this paper we demonstrate a modeling approach that can be used to better understand the use of safety belts in single- and multi-occupant vehicles, and the effect that vehicle, roadway and occupant characteristics have on usage rates. Using data from a roadside observational survey of safety-belt use in Indiana, a mixed (random parameters) logit model is estimated. Potentially interrelated choices of safety-belt use by drivers and front-seat passengers are examined. The approach we use also allows for the possibility that estimated model parameters can vary randomly across vehicle occupants to account for unobserved effects potentially relating to roadway characteristics, vehicle attributes, and driver behavior. Estimation findings indicate that the choices of safety-belt use involve a complex interaction of factors and that the effect of these factors can vary significantly across the population. Our results show that the mixed logit model can provide a much fuller understanding of the interaction of the numerous variables which correlate with safety-belt use than traditional discrete-outcome modeling approaches.

[1]  Brian Krauth,et al.  Simulation-based estimation of peer effects , 2006 .

[2]  James L Nichols,et al.  Effectiveness of primary enforcement safety belt laws and enhanced enforcement of safety belt laws: a summary of the Guide to Community Preventive Services systematic reviews. , 2004, Journal of safety research.

[3]  K. Train Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation , 2003 .

[4]  K. Train,et al.  Mixed Logit with Repeated Choices: Households' Choices of Appliance Efficiency Level , 1998, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[5]  Mark R Lehto,et al.  Young drivers' decision making and safety belt use. , 2002, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[6]  L. Einav,et al.  The Effects of Mandatory Seat Belt Laws on Driving Behavior and Traffic Fatalities , 2003, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[7]  Donna Glassbrenner,et al.  Recent estimates of safety belt use. , 2004, Journal of safety research.

[8]  David J Houston,et al.  Getting Americans to buckle up: the efficacy of state seat belt laws. , 2005, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[9]  K. Train Halton Sequences for Mixed Logit , 2000 .

[10]  Mark Vollrath,et al.  How the presence of passengers influences the risk of a collision with another vehicle. , 2002, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[11]  D Shinar,et al.  Demographic and socioeconomic correlates of safety belt use. , 1993, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[12]  Donna Glassbrenner,et al.  Seat Belt Use in 2006–Overall Results , 2006 .

[13]  D. McFadden Econometric Models of Probabilistic Choice , 1981 .

[14]  D. McFadden,et al.  ESTIMATION BY SIMULATION , 1994 .

[15]  Naveen Eluru,et al.  A joint econometric analysis of seat belt use and crash-related injury severity. , 2007, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[16]  A K Lund,et al.  Characteristics of belted and unbelted drivers. , 1991, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[17]  Wagner A. Kamakura,et al.  Book Review: Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications , 1982 .

[18]  V. Hajivassiliou,et al.  Smooth unbiased multivariate probability simulators for maximum likelihood estimation of limited dependent variable models , 1993 .

[19]  David White,et al.  Safety-Restraint Use Rate as Function of Law Enforcement and Other Factors: Preliminary Analysis , 2001 .

[20]  David W Eby,et al.  Differences in safety belt use by race. , 2004, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[21]  M Nitzburg,et al.  RURAL PICKUP TRUCK DRIVERS AND SAFETY BELT USE: FOCUS GROUP REPORT , 2004 .

[22]  L. Einav,et al.  The Effects of Mandatory Seat Belt Laws on Driving Behavior and Traffic Fatalities , 2003 .

[23]  Allan F. Williams,et al.  CHARACTERISTICS OF DRIVERS NOT USING SEAT BELTS IN A HIGH BELT USE STATE , 1996 .

[24]  David R. Ragland,et al.  Vehicle Occupancy and Crash Risk , 2005 .

[25]  D. McFadden,et al.  MIXED MNL MODELS FOR DISCRETE RESPONSE , 2000 .

[26]  W Janssen,et al.  Seat-belt wearing and driving behavior: an instrumented-vehicle study. , 1994, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[27]  J. Geweke,et al.  Alternative computational approaches to inference in the multinomial probit model , 1994 .

[28]  Mei-Li Lin,et al.  The provisional license: nighttime and passenger restrictions--a literature review. , 2003, Journal of safety research.

[29]  David W Eby,et al.  A comparison of safety belt use between commercial and noncommercial light-vehicle occupants. , 2002, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[30]  J. Andrey,et al.  The situational risks of young drivers: the influence of passengers, time of day and day of week on accident rates. , 1998, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[31]  I Colón,et al.  Race, belief in destiny, and seat belt usage: a pilot study. , 1992, American journal of public health.

[32]  F P Rivara,et al.  Effectiveness of primary and secondary enforced seat belt laws. , 1999, American journal of preventive medicine.

[33]  C. Bhat Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model , 2001 .

[34]  Kenneth Train,et al.  Customer-Specific Taste Parameters and Mixed Logit , 1999 .

[35]  Shauna L. Hallmark,et al.  EVALUATION OF RACIAL DIFFERENCES IN SEAT BELT AND CHILD RESTRAINT USE: A REVIEW OF CURRENT LITERATURE , 2004 .

[36]  Mohamed Abdel-Aty,et al.  Impact of Presence of Passengers on Freeway Crash Potential , 2007 .

[37]  N P Humphrey TRB SPECIAL REPORT: BUCKLING UP: TECHNOLOGIES TO INCREASE SEAT BELT USE , 2004 .

[38]  T S Dee,et al.  Reconsidering the effects of seat belt laws and their enforcement status. , 1998, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[39]  Dorothy Jean Begg,et al.  Seat-Belt Use and Related Behaviors Among Young Adults , 2000 .

[40]  C. Bhat Simulation estimation of mixed discrete choice models using randomized and scrambled Halton sequences , 2003 .

[41]  David Gillen,et al.  Measuring the impact of passenger restrictions on new teenage drivers. , 2005, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[42]  Jennifer Spaeth,et al.  Task Force on Community Preventive Services , 2009 .

[43]  S. Washington,et al.  Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis , 2010 .

[44]  Allan F. Williams,et al.  Seat belt use among African Americans, Hispanics, and Whites. , 2002, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[45]  K. Train,et al.  Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns , 1998 .

[46]  Fred L Mannering,et al.  Highway accident severities and the mixed logit model: an exploratory empirical analysis. , 2008, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[47]  David W Eby,et al.  The effects of standard enforcement on Michigan safety belt use. , 2002, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[48]  D E Nelson,et al.  Trends in safety belt use by demographics and by type of state safety belt law, 1987 through 1993. , 1998, American journal of public health.

[49]  Nikiforos Stamatiadis,et al.  Evaluating the impact of passengers on the safety of older drivers. , 2003, Journal of safety research.

[50]  Fred Mannering,et al.  An exploration of the offset hypothesis using disaggregate data: The case of airbags and antilock brakes , 2006 .

[51]  P Finn,et al.  ENCOURAGING FULL-TIME USE OF SAFETY BELTS AMONG CURRENT PART-TIME USERS. FINAL REPORT , 1991 .

[52]  A F Williams,et al.  The effect of teenage passengers on the fatal crash risk of teenage drivers. , 1998, Accident; analysis and prevention.