Bayesian uncertainty inverse analysis method based on pome

The routine methods of inverse analysis based on deterministic models of numerical analysis can not synthetically take into account the influences of various uncertainty factors,and so are difficult to be utilized to simulate the uncertainty characteristics of complicated engineering system.Aimed at this shortage,an uncertainty inverse analysis method for engineering system was studied.From uncertainty analysis point of view,the engineering structure was considered as an uncertainty system,and a Bayesian uncertainty inverse analysis method based on the principle of maximum entropy(POME) was put forward,which organically combined information entropy theory and Bayesian method of inverse analysis,so that the system discriminance problem of uncertainty inverse analysis was transformed into an optimization evaluation problem for Bayesian rule function. Utilizing appropriate optimization method,uncertainty inverse analysis could be realized for evaluations of engineering structure parameters or fountainhead loads.As an engineering example,the method advanced was utilized to carry out inverse analyses of material parameters of dam concrete elastic modulus and bedrock deformation modulus.The calculation results show that the material parameters obtained are right and that the precision is higher than that of the conventional deterministic methods of inverse analysis which is widely used presently.