A general method for predicting amino acid residues experiencing hydrogen exchange

Information on protein hydrogen exchange can help delineate key regions involved in protein-protein inter-actions and provides important insight towards determining functional roles of genetic variants and their possible mechanisms in disease processes. Previous studies have shown that the degree of hydrogen exchange is affected by hydrogen bond formations, solvent accessibility, proximity to other residues, and experimental conditions. However, a general predictive method for identifying residues capable of hydrogen exchange transferable to a broad set of proteins is lacking. We have developed a machine learning method based on random forest that can predict whether a residue experiences hydrogen exchange. Using data from the Start2Fold database, which contains information on 13,306 residues (3,790 of which experience hydrogen exchange and 9,516 which do not exchange), our method achieves good performance. Specifically, we achieve an overall out-of-bag (OOB) error, an unbiased estimate of the test set error, of 20.3 percent. Using a randomly selected test data set consisting of 500 residues experiencing hydrogen exchange and 500 which do not, our method achieves an accuracy of 0.79, a recall of 0.74, a precision of 0.82, and an F1 score of 0.78.