Guidelines for design and analysis in agent-based simulation studies

Agent-based simulation (ABS) continues to grow in popularity and in its fast-expanding application in various fields. Despite the increased interest, however, a common protocol or standard curriculum for development and analysis of ABS models hardly exists. As originally discrete-event simulation (DES) modelers, self-taught and still new to the world of ABS modeling, we have occasionally observed a gap between traditional simulation theory and current practices of ABS in the literature. This points to great unevenness among existing ABS applications in terms of concepts and design, quantitative and computational techniques used in analysis of models, as well as domain-specific issues in different fields. In this paper, we review a number of important topics and issues in the design and analysis of ABS models that deserve attention. Our discussion is supported by some illustrative examples from ABS models of disease epidemics, but it's applicable to a fairly general class of ABS models.

[1]  M. Robin DiMatteo,et al.  Patient Adherence and Medical Treatment Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis , 2002, Medical care.

[2]  Laurence R. Rilett,et al.  Calibration of Microsimulation Models Using Nonparametric Statistical Techniques , 2005 .

[3]  Kathrin Happe,et al.  Agent-Based Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis by Experimental Design and Metamodelling: An Application to Modelling Regional Structural Change , 2005 .

[4]  Dirk Helbing,et al.  How to Do Agent-Based Simulations in the Future: From Modeling Social Mechanisms to Emergent Phenomena and Interactive Systems Design , 2013 .

[5]  A. O'Hagan,et al.  Bayesian calibration of computer models , 2001 .

[6]  Thomas W. Lucas,et al.  Exploring the world of agent-based simulations: simple models, complex analyses , 2002, Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference.

[7]  Jack P. C. Kleijnen,et al.  EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL , 1992 .

[8]  Jonathan Timmis,et al.  Automated calibration of agent-based immunological simulations , 2013, ECAL.

[9]  Osman Balci Validation, verification, and testing techniques throughout the life cycle of a simulation study , 1994, WSC '94.

[10]  Robert E. Shannon,et al.  Design and analysis of simulation experiments , 1978, WSC '78.

[11]  Vito Latora,et al.  Network of sexual contacts and sexually transmitted HIV infection in Burkina Faso , 2006, Journal of medical virology.

[12]  O. Balci,et al.  Validation, verification, and testing techniques throughout the life cycle of a simulation study , 1994, Proceedings of Winter Simulation Conference.

[13]  Frank Puppe,et al.  Techniques for Analysis and Calibration of Multi-agent Simulations , 2004, ESAW.

[14]  Hugh W. Coleman,et al.  Experimentation and Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers , 1989 .

[15]  Franziska Klügl-Frohnmeyer,et al.  A validation methodology for agent-based simulations , 2008, SAC.

[16]  Hadi Dowlatabadi,et al.  Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Complex Models of Disease Transmission: an HIV Model, as an Example , 1994 .

[17]  Averill M. Law,et al.  Simulation Modeling and Analysis , 1982 .

[18]  John Oxford Controlling pandemic flu , 2013 .

[19]  Radhika Dhingra,et al.  Sensitivity analysis of infectious disease models: methods, advances and their application , 2013, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[20]  Michael J. North,et al.  Tutorial on agent-based modelling and simulation , 2005, Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, 2005..

[21]  Phillip D. Stroud,et al.  Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza in a Massive Artificial Society , 2007, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[22]  W. Kelton,et al.  Simulation optimization for allocation of epidemic-control resources , 2013 .

[23]  Cesare Furlanello,et al.  Modeling socio-demography to capture tuberculosis transmission dynamics in a low burden setting. , 2011, Journal of theoretical biology.

[24]  Raymond R. Hill,et al.  A Survey of Agent-Based Modeling Practices (January 1998 to July 2008) , 2009, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[25]  Franco Zambonelli,et al.  Engineering Societies in the Agents World , 2000, Lecture Notes in Computer Science.

[26]  Levent Yilmaz,et al.  Validation and verification of social processes within agent-based computational organization models , 2006, Comput. Math. Organ. Theory.

[27]  George L. Nemhauser,et al.  Handbooks in operations research and management science , 1989 .

[28]  G. Seage,et al.  Individual-Based Simulation Models of HIV Transmission: Reporting Quality and Recommendations , 2013, PloS one.

[29]  Hazhir Rahmandad,et al.  Heterogeneity and Network Structure in the Dynamics of Diffusion: Comparing Agent-Based and Differential Equation Models , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[30]  Annalisa Fabretti,et al.  On the problem of calibrating an agent based model for financial markets , 2012, Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination.

[31]  Michael J. North,et al.  Successful approaches for teaching agent-based simulation , 2013, J. Simulation.

[32]  G. Marks,et al.  Contact Tracing of Tuberculosis: A Systematic Review of Transmission Modelling Studies , 2013, PloS one.

[33]  Jack P. C. Kleijnen,et al.  State-of-the-Art Review: A User's Guide to the Brave New World of Designing Simulation Experiments , 2005, INFORMS J. Comput..

[34]  Joshua M. Epstein,et al.  Controlling Pandemic Flu: The Value of International Air Travel Restrictions , 2007, PloS one.

[35]  Susan M. Sanchez,et al.  Better than a petaflop: The power of efficient experimental design , 2008, 2008 Winter Simulation Conference.

[36]  W. David Kelton,et al.  Resource allocation for controlling epidemics: Calibrating, analyzing, and optimizing an agent-based simulation , 2013 .

[37]  Gnana Bharathy,et al.  Validating agent based social systems models , 2010, Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference.

[38]  Charles M. Macal,et al.  Tutorial on agent-based modelling and simulation , 2005, Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, 2005..

[39]  Eric Bonabeau,et al.  Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[40]  Osman Balci Principles and techniques of simulation validation, verification, and testing , 1995, WSC '95.

[41]  Peer-Olaf Siebers,et al.  Discrete-event simulation is dead, long live agent-based simulation! , 2010, J. Simulation.

[42]  Thomas W. Lucas,et al.  Generating hypotheses on fighting the global war on terrorism , 2003 .

[43]  A. Borshchev,et al.  From System Dynamics and Discrete Event to Practical Agent Based Modeling : Reasons , Techniques , Tools , 2004 .

[44]  Birgit Müller,et al.  A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models , 2006 .