Managing the insolvable limitations of cost-benefit analysis: results of an interview based study

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) has been an important tool for transport planners for several decades. Despite its popularity it has often been criticized for several reasons, amongst other things, because the tool has some insolvable limitations when it is applied in practice. In this paper we examine and scrutinize the perceptions of 86 key actors in the Dutch appraisal practice for spatial-infrastructure projects with regard to three insolvable CBA limitations: (1) CBA is always incomplete; (2) Effect estimations are always uncertain; (3) Effects that are difficult to estimate have a relatively weak position. We conclude that Dutch key actors were not only able to point out these three CBA limitations and the bad management of these limitations, but they were also able to propose several (pragmatic) solutions to improve the management of CBA limitations. This paper discusses how the proposed solutions relate to solutions addressed in the literature. Moreover, we provide recommendations for further research and discuss policy recommendations that transpired from the results.

[1]  S. Mourato,et al.  Environmental Cost-Benefit Analysis , 2008 .

[2]  Aura Reggiani,et al.  Policy Analysis of Transport Networks , 2006 .

[3]  R. Beattie,et al.  Everything you already know about EIA (but don't often admit) , 1995 .

[4]  Susan Grant-Muller,et al.  Incorporating equity as part of the wider impacts in transport infrastructure assessment: an application of the SUMINI approach , 2013 .

[5]  K. Nyborg The Ethics and Politics of Environmental Cost-Benefit Analysis , 2012 .

[6]  Frans Sijtsma,et al.  Evaluation of landscape impacts - enriching the economist's toolbox with the HotSpotIndex , 2012 .

[7]  Andrew Daly,et al.  Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands , 2007 .

[8]  Søren L. Buhl,et al.  How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?: The Case of Transportation , 2005, 1303.6654.

[9]  Frans Sijtsma Project evaluation, sustainability and accountability: combining cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA) , 2006 .

[10]  E. J. Mishan,et al.  Elements of cost-benefit analysis , 1971 .

[11]  Harry Geerlings,et al.  Exposing weaknesses in interactive planning: the remarkable return of comprehensive policy analysis in The Netherlands , 2003 .

[12]  R. Weber Basic Content Analysis , 1986 .

[13]  Tony W. Tong,et al.  Real Options in Strategic Management , 2007 .

[14]  Susan Grant-Muller,et al.  Economic appraisal of European transport projects: The state-of-the-art revisited , 2001 .

[15]  Karel Martens,et al.  Substance precedes methodology: on cost–benefit analysis and equity , 2011 .

[16]  R. Weber Basic content analysis, 2nd ed. , 1990 .

[17]  R. Boadway PRINCIPLES OF COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS , 2006 .

[18]  Morten Skou Nicolaisen,et al.  Forecasts: Fact or Fiction?: Uncertainty and Inaccuracy in Transport Project Evaluation , 2012 .

[19]  David Banister,et al.  Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model , 2009 .

[20]  B. Wee,et al.  Ranking the substantive problems in the Dutch Cost–Benefit Analysis practice , 2013 .

[21]  Jonas Eliasson,et al.  Do Cost-Benefit Analyses Really Influence Transport Investment Decisions? Experiences from the Swedish National Transport Investment Plan 2010-2021 , 2010 .

[22]  Petter Næss Cost-Benefit Analyses of Transportation Investments: Neither critical nor realistic , 2006 .

[23]  B. Wee How suitable is CBA for the ex-ante evaluation of transport projects and policies? A discussion from the perspective of ethics , 2012 .

[24]  F. Sijtsma,et al.  Evaluation for Participation and Sustainability in Planning , 2011 .

[25]  S. Kelman,et al.  Cost-benefit analysis: an ethical critique. , 1981, Regulation.

[26]  Kim Bang Salling,et al.  MCDA and risk analysis in transport infrastructure appraisals: The Rail Baltica case , 2011 .

[27]  E. Quah,et al.  Cost-Benefit Analysis , 1972 .

[28]  John Preston,et al.  Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal , 1998 .

[29]  P. Self,et al.  “NONSENSE ON STILTS”: COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS AND THE ROSKILL COMMISSION , 1970 .

[30]  Amartya Sen,et al.  The Discipline of Cost‐Benefit Analysis , 2000, The Journal of Legal Studies.

[31]  B. Wee,et al.  Attitudes towards the role of Cost–Benefit Analysis in the decision-making process for spatial-infrastructure projects: A Dutch case study , 2013 .

[32]  S Grant-Muller,et al.  Incorporating equity considerations in transport infrastructure evaluation: Current practice and a proposed methodology. , 2009, Evaluation and program planning.

[33]  B. Flyvbjerg,et al.  Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition , 2003 .

[34]  G. Moskowitz Cognitive social psychology : the Princeton Symposium on the Legacy and Future of Social Cognition , 1981 .

[35]  James Laird,et al.  Current Practice in Project Appraisal in Europe , 2005 .

[36]  Steen Leleur,et al.  Composite decision support by combining cost-benefit and multi-criteria decision analysis , 2011, Decis. Support Syst..

[37]  M. Heide The economic value of landscapes , 2011 .

[38]  Peter Mackie,et al.  Cost-Benefit Analysis in Transport , 2010 .

[39]  Frans Sijtsma,et al.  Measuring the attractiveness of Dutch landscapes: Identifying national hotspots of highly valued places using Google Maps , 2013 .

[40]  Patricia H. Werhane,et al.  Ethical issues in business : a philosophical approach , 1988 .

[41]  Yoshihiko Hayashi,et al.  International comparison of background concept and methodology of transportation project appraisal , 2000 .

[42]  Petter Næss,et al.  What Kinds of Traffic Forecasts are Possible? , 2012 .

[43]  F. Sijtsma,et al.  Beyond monetary measurement: How to evaluate projects and policies using the ecosystem services framework , 2013 .

[44]  H. Campbell,et al.  Benefit-Cost Analysis: Financial and Economic Appraisal using Spreadsheets , 2003 .

[45]  Lisa Heinzerling,et al.  Priceless: On Knowing the Price of Everything and the Value of Nothing , 2004 .

[46]  J. Elíasson,et al.  Do Cost–Benefit Analyses Influence Transport Investment Decisions? Experiences from the Swedish Transport Investment Plan 2010–21 , 2012 .