The future of public participation in Germany: Empirical analyses of administration experts' assessments

Abstract In democratically organized forms of government, public participation is a crucial element of the democratic process. Due to ongoing social change and the resulting changes in the requirements for democracy, the participative elements of democracy are constantly evolving. Consequently, in recent decades, the methods and instruments of public participation have developed and adapted to the changing demands in western democracies. Where, however, is public participation headed? This question remains unanswered, and the research at hand aims to answer it. To structure the current, at times controversial, discussion and gain insight into the future of public participation, we use a Delphi survey. Our survey focuses on expectations about the future of public participation using data from German administration professionals. The panelists evaluate 10 future projections on developments in public participation in Germany until the year 2020. Based on the obtained data, we identify the projections for which the panel agrees on the expected probability of occurrence. Moreover, we analyze the projections with dissent among the panelists in more detail and examine the evaluations for consensus within different subgroups.

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