Renewable electricity generation in India—A learning rate analysis

The cost of electricity generation using renewable technologies is widely assumed to be higher than the cost for conventional generation technologies, but likely to fall with growing experience of the technologies concerned. This paper tests the second part of that statement using learning rate analysis, based on large samples of wind and small hydro projects in India, and projects likely changes in these costs through 2020. It is the first study of learning rates for renewable generation technologies in India, and only the second in any developing country—it provides valuable input to the development of Indian energy policy and will be relevant to policy makers in other developing countries.

[1]  Karin Ibenholt Explaining learning curves for wind power , 2002 .

[2]  P. Joskow Comparing the Costs of Intermittent and Dispatchable Electricity Generating Technologies , 2011 .

[3]  Gregory F. Nemet,et al.  Interim monitoring of cost dynamics for publicly supported energy technologies , 2009 .

[4]  R. Wiser,et al.  2010 Wind Technologies Market Report , 2011 .

[5]  Stephan Schmid,et al.  energy [r]evolution - A sustainable world energy outlook , 2007 .

[6]  Alexander Limonov,et al.  The Health Effects of Coal Electricity Generation in India , 2012 .

[7]  John C. Sawhill,et al.  The Finance and Analysis of Capital Projects. , 1965 .

[8]  Mark Bolinger,et al.  Understanding Trends in Wind Turbine Prices Over the Past Decade , 2012 .

[9]  S. Borenstein The Private and Public Economics of Renewable Electricity Generation , 2011 .

[10]  Aie World Energy Outlook 2011 , 2011 .

[11]  Laura Nuñez,et al.  Figuring what’s fair: The cost of equity capital for renewable energy in emerging markets , 2012 .

[12]  Laura Diaz Anadon,et al.  The price of wind power in China during its expansion: Technology adoption, learning-by-doing, economies of scale, and manufacturing localization , 2012 .

[13]  H. Lehmann,et al.  Renewable Energy Outlook 2030 - Energy Watch Group Global Renewable Energy Scenarios , 2009 .

[14]  Wim Turkenburg,et al.  Global experience curves for wind farms , 2005 .

[15]  William D. Nordhaus,et al.  The Perils of the Learning Model for Modeling Endogenous Technological Change , 2009 .

[16]  Sudeshna Banerjee,et al.  Unleashing the Potential of Renewable Energy in India , 2011 .

[17]  T. P. Wright,et al.  Factors affecting the cost of airplanes , 1936 .

[18]  Ryan Wiser,et al.  2011 Wind Technologies Market Report , 2012 .

[19]  Chris Hope,et al.  Climate modelling with endogenous technical change: Stochastic learning and optimal greenhouse gas abatement in the PAGE2002 model , 2007 .

[20]  Poul Erik Morthorst,et al.  Contribution to the Chapter on Wind Power, in: Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, IEA , 2009 .

[21]  Lennart Söder,et al.  Design and operation of power systems with large amounts of wind power , 2009 .

[22]  Patrik Söderholm,et al.  Empirical challenges in the use of learning curves for assessing the economic prospects of renewable energy technologies , 2007 .

[23]  M. Fripp,et al.  Effects of Temporal Wind Patterns on the Value of Wind-Generated Electricity in California and the Northwest , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[24]  Patrik Söderholm,et al.  Wind power learning rates: A conceptual review and meta-analysis☆ , 2012 .

[25]  Maureen Hand,et al.  IEA Wind Task 26: The Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy, Work Package 2 , 2012 .