Application of Multi-layer Fuzzy Evaluation Method to Risk Assessment in Civil Aviation

Through analyzing the characteristics of civil aviation safety system and the unsafe factors in human-machine-environment-management system,the possibility and severity of unsafe incidents in civil aviation are calculated by use of the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy evaluation methods.Thereby,an integrated risk was obtained;the risk assessment method and the risk assessment index system for unsafe aviation incidents were established.According to the risk criteria and the calculated risk results showed in risk matrix form,the airlines can,then,take some corresponding measures to control those unsafe incidents so as to avoid the occurrence of aviation accidents.